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Will Brazil’s Election Decide the Fate of Regulated Betting?

By jili tutorial · October 8, 2026

Will Brazil’s Election Decide the Fate of Regulated Betting?

As Brazil’s presidential election heads to a second round, the future of its regulated online betting sector hangs in the balance. With incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s recent provisional ban on licensed gambling and a runoff election scheduled for October 25, the stakes are high for both the industry and the country’s political landscape. This article explores the potential implications of the election outcome, the role of Congress, and the broader consequences for Brazil’s gambling sector.

The Context: A Ban Amidst Political Turmoil

In late September 2023, President Lula issued a provisional measure banning licensed online gambling in Brazil. This move came less than two years after the regulated market was launched in January 2025. Despite the initial optimism surrounding the industry’s legalization, public perception and political pressure—particularly from evangelical groups—led to the abrupt ban. The provisional measure now awaits Congressional review to determine whether it will become permanent.

The first round of the presidential election saw a close race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, leader of the Liberal Party and son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro. With neither candidate securing the necessary 50% of the vote, a runoff election has been scheduled for October 25. The election results could significantly influence the fate of the betting sector.

Public Opinion and Political Pressure

Public opinion on gambling in Brazil is currently unfavorable, with evangelical voters playing a pivotal role in shaping the discourse. Both Lula and Bolsonaro rely heavily on this voter base, which is openly opposed to gambling. Ramiro Atucha, CEO and founder of Atucha Strategic Advisory, notes that this dynamic could lead both candidates to take a harder stance against the regulated industry in the lead-up to the runoff.

“The evangelical vote carries a lot of weight for both candidates,” Atucha explains. “In that context, I can only imagine both of them doubling down against the regulated industry, particularly online casinos. Nobody wins votes defending bets in Brazil this month.”

Congress: The Key Battleground

While the presidency is critical, Congress may ultimately decide the fate of the betting ban. The Liberal Party’s strong performance in the first round, securing 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, marks its largest bloc since 1990. This development could complicate efforts to sustain Lula’s ban, as lawmakers may take a longer-term view of the legal and economic consequences.

Atucha argues that Bolsonaro’s party’s congressional strength could lead to a more nuanced approach to the ban. “Congress works on a longer horizon,” he says. “A chamber where the PL has the largest bench since 1990 is more likely to respect signed agreements and consider the implications of ongoing lawsuits.”

However, Udo Seckelmann, partner at Brazilian law firm Bichara e Motta Advogados, cautions that congressional opposition to the ban does not guarantee its rejection. “The first-round result will likely shape the political environment, but the ban is still subject to congressional review and judicial scrutiny,” he explains. “The debate increasingly revolves around whether prohibition is more effective than regulation in protecting consumers and combating illegal operators.”

A Bolsonaro Victory: A Silver Lining for Betting?

While a Bolsonaro win might seem favorable for the gambling sector, it is not a panacea. Bolsonaro has previously expressed support for banning online casinos while maintaining sports betting. Like Lula, he is heavily influenced by the evangelical electorate, which opposes gambling.

“Bolsonaro relies on the evangelical vote as much as Lula does,” Atucha notes. “But of the two, he is the one I see as more sensitive to pre-existing agreements. I have some hope under Bolsonaro, but with the pressure from the evangelical church and public opinion, I would not bet on either outcome.”

Seckelmann echoes this caution, emphasizing that any incoming government would face competing pressures. “It is difficult to predict the policies of a future administration,” he says. “The ultimate direction would depend on congressional support and the administration’s priorities.”

Investor Confidence: A Fragile Ecosystem

The election result could have lasting consequences not only for the existing operators but also for investor confidence in Brazil’s regulatory stability. Operators invested heavily in the market, paying BRL30 million per license and building local infrastructure. The sudden ban has led to layoffs and financial losses, raising concerns about the sector’s viability.

“The harder thing to rebuild is the trust of international investors in Brazil’s respect for institutions, for agreements, and for licenses it granted itself,” Atucha warns. “That takes years, and it goes well beyond gaming.”

Seckelmann similarly highlights the potential for long-term damage. “Sudden policy reversals increase perceived regulatory risk and may affect future investment decisions,” he says. “Many companies would closely evaluate whether the legal framework offers long-term stability before making new commitments.”

Electoral Tactics and Lasting Consequences

Bolsonaro’s assertion that Lula’s ban was an electoral tactic is widely accepted within the industry. Atucha describes the move as short-sighted and politically motivated, ignoring the broader economic and social implications.

“It is so short-term that it ignores the tax collection already budgeted for the coming months, the lawsuits, the people losing their jobs, and the club sponsorships,” Atucha says. “It is a purely populist measure built for the election cycle.”

Interestingly, it was Lula’s government that initially regulated the market in January 2025. Atucha suggests that this could make a return to regulated gambling easier under Bolsonaro, as he would not have to reverse his own policies to restore the market.

“There is one thing that may play in the industry’s favor,” Atucha adds. “It was not Bolsonaro’s government that approved and regulated this market. He can let it come back without owning the original decision.”

Conclusion: An Uncertain Future

Regardless of who wins the presidency, the damage to the betting sector may already be irreversible for some operators. Smaller operators struggling before the ban may face insurmountable challenges, while larger operators may still have a chance to recover if the market is restored quickly.

“For operators that were doing well before the ban, a quick restoration is still an opportunity,” Atucha concludes. “But for smaller operators, many will hit a point of no return during these months, and no government will be able to undo that.”

As Brazil’s election nears its decisive moment, the fate of regulated betting remains uncertain. The outcome will not only shape the future of the industry but also test Brazil’s commitment to regulatory stability and investor confidence.