jili tutorial

Why NFL Fans at the Melbourne Game Won’t Be Trading on Kalshi from Their Seats

By jili tutorial · September 12, 2026

Why NFL Fans at the Melbourne Game Won’t Be Trading on Kalshi from Their Seats

The Historic Matchup: NFL’s First Regular-Season Game in Australia

When the Los Angeles Rams face the San Francisco 49ers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, it will mark a historic moment for the NFL—the league’s first-ever regular-season game on Australian soil. The matchup, scheduled for Thursday night in the U.S. (Friday morning in Melbourne), comes after an exhausting journey for an estimated 10,000 American fans expected to attend. The distance? A staggering 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, where the two NFC West rivals last met.

Both teams hail from California, a state with over 39 million residents where sports betting remains illegal. This prohibition has made California a fertile ground for prediction markets like Kalshi, which allow users to trade contracts on outcomes ranging from sports results to political events. But here’s the catch: for the Americans traveling to Melbourne, the ability to live-trade from their seats during the game is completely off the table.

ASIC’s Strongest Warning Yet

The reason lies with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), the nation’s financial services regulator. In what may be ASIC’s strongest warning to date against prediction markets, the commission reiterated that these platforms are not licensed to operate as financial markets in Australia. Last month, ASIC urged consumers to exercise extreme caution before engaging with offshore platforms that lack national licensing. The advisory effectively bars U.S. fans from using Kalshi or similar services while on Australian soil.

The Polymarket Precedent

This isn’t an isolated stance. In 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) banned Polymarket from operating nationwide. ACMA cited a violation of the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001, specifically for accepting in-play bets on sports events. This regulatory environment makes it clear: Australia views prediction markets as unlicensed gambling operations, not legitimate financial instruments. For the American fans traveling to Melbourne, trading on Kalshi during the game would not only be inconvenient—it would be illegal.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell’s Perspective: Integrity First

Goodell’s Message from Melbourne

Ahead of the game, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell spoke with CNBC from Melbourne, expressing support for stricter regulations. “We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets,” Goodell said. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game—we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms.”

This stance aligns with the NFL’s broader push for oversight. In May, the league sent a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) listing specific event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the NFL doubled down with public comments after the CFTC issued draft regulations. The league cited concerns over contracts on:

The NFL’s Patient Approach

Despite these concerns, Goodell acknowledged that the NFL has held discussions about prediction markets as public policy evolves. He emphasized a cautious strategy: “We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right. The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one.”

Interestingly, two other major U.S. leagues—Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League—have already signed Memoranda of Understanding with the CFTC. These agreements allow participating teams to partner with prediction market operators. The NFL, by contrast, is taking a slower, more deliberate approach.

Kalshi’s Stance on International Expansion

A U.S.-Only Focus for Now

Despite its rapid growth in the United States, Kalshi has been relatively quiet about plans for international expansion. There is speculation that the company will wait to build abroad until after completing an initial public offering (IPO). Currently, Kalshi has sought a valuation of around $44 billion.

Strict User Requirements

Kalshi’s current sign-up protocols are heavily U.S.-focused. New users must provide:

The Restricted Countries List

Per a nine-page member agreement issued by Kalshi in June, users are prohibited from trading on event contracts if they are domiciled in roughly three dozen countries. Australia, by way of the ASIC ban, is included on this list. Under the agreement, Kalshi reserves the right to deny access to users from those jurisdictions. So even if an American fan in Melbourne attempted to log in, Kalshi’s systems would likely block the trade.

ASIC’s Warning to Consumers

ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland reinforced the regulator’s stance in an August statement. He wrote that users who opt to engage with overseas operators may miss out on “protections” afforded to them on Australian soil. For American fans, this means the legal and financial safeguards they rely on in the U.S. simply don’t apply Down Under.

The Game Itself: Rams Favored, but History Says Otherwise

Current Odds on Kalshi

As of 3 p.m. ET on game day, the Rams held 64% odds on Kalshi to defeat the 49ers in Melbourne. For a trader risking $100, a Rams win would return $150.15. The Rams, who added Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie in the offseason, are considered strong favorites to capture Super Bowl LXI in February.

Super Bowl Futures: A Mixed Signal

On Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams have 17% odds to win the Super Bowl. This is the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. In American odds, that translates to +488—a relatively low figure for a Super Bowl favorite. But history is not on their side. According to Yahoo Sports, all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl.

The Pressure on the Rams

With the NFL’s first-ever game in Australia and the weight of Super Bowl expectations, the Rams face immense pressure. Add to that the regulatory spotlight on prediction markets, and this game becomes a microcosm of the larger tension between sports integrity, fan engagement, and financial innovation.

Conclusion: A Tale of Two Markets

The Melbourne game highlights a growing divide between the U.S. and global regulatory environments. While American fans can freely trade on Kalshi from home, the same action is prohibited in Australia due to ASIC’s strict stance. For now, the 10,000 fans making the long journey to Melbourne will have to enjoy the game the old-fashioned way—by watching the action unfold on the field, not on their phones.

As the NFL, regulators, and prediction market operators continue to navigate this evolving landscape, one thing is clear: the debate over what constitutes a legitimate market versus gambling is far from settled. And for fans in Melbourne, the only thing they’ll be trading is the thrill of live football.