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VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL WEEK 4 UNDERDOGS DELIVER BIG DAY FOR SPORTSBOOKS

By jili tutorial · October 6, 2026

VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL WEEK 4 UNDERDOGS DELIVER BIG DAY FOR SPORTSBOOKS

According to Las Vegas traders, the biggest storyline of NFL Week 4 wasn’t a superstar quarterback or a last-second field goal—it was the underdogs. The New England Patriots, led by quarterback Drake Maye, stunned the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, and the result was music to sportsbooks’ ears. By the end of the day, underdogs had gone 8-4-2 against the spread (ATS) with five outright upsets, according to OddsTrader. Here’s how a chaotic Sunday unfolded from the sportsbook perspective.

What “Against the Spread” Really Means

Before diving into the action, it’s worth explaining one key betting term: against the spread (ATS). A team can “cover” the spread by losing by fewer points than the point spread, or win by more than the spread if favored. So when we say underdogs finished 8-4-2 ATS, it means that in 14 games, underdogs covered in eight, lost against the spread in four, and pushed in two. Five of those underdogs also won the game outright—meaning they won straight up, not just against the number.

That combination—underdogs covering and winning—is a recipe for a profitable day for sportsbooks, especially when many bettors loaded up on favorites and parlays.

Patriots Shock Bills Bettors

The most significant upset of the day came in Buffalo. Just one week earlier, the Patriots had lost 35-6 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, a brutal performance that raised serious questions about Maye, who fumbled twice, threw two interceptions, and was benched in the fourth quarter. But Week 4 was a different story. The Patriots walked into Buffalo’s shiny new Highmark Stadium and beat the previously undefeated Bills 29-26.

Maye finished 22-of-37 for 269 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He posted a 97.7 passer rating at ESPN—solid by NFL standards—but his total quarterback rating (QBR) was an elite 91.0. That distinction matters: traditional passer rating measures stats like completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, while QBR is designed to capture a quarterback’s overall contribution to winning, including scrambling and play under pressure. Maye also ran for 54 yards on eight carries and took just one sack.

For bettors, Maye’s performance was a nightmare. The Patriots were a clear underdog, and Buffalo was one of the most popular picks on the board.

A Positive Day for the Book

“A positive day for the book,” said Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM, while the Sunday night game between the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions was still being played. The Panthers ended up winning 32-26 as a three-point underdog, adding one more result to the sportsbooks’ favor.

Cipollini noted that the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins both covering was helpful. But the real boost came from the Bills’ loss. “The Bills losing broke up many of the common big favorite parlay bets,” he explained. Parlays—multi-leg wagers where every pick must hit—are notoriously hard for bettors to win, but they’re often popular with the public. When a heavy favorite like Buffalo loses, sportsbooks collect on a huge number of losing parlay tickets.

Bettors did get off to a strong start earlier in the day, though. The Indianapolis Colts won 30-13 over the Washington Commanders in London, covering as -225 moneyline favorites. But that early win for the public didn’t last long.

Caesars Calls the Bills Loss the Biggest Result

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, called the Bills loss the biggest result of the day for the book. “In quite the dose of irony, the Patriots became the first team to hand the Bills a loss in their new stadium, taking down one of the most heavily bet parlay teams of the day,” he said. “That upset circled the wagons for the book for the morning games.”

The “circled the wagons” metaphor is fitting—sportsbooks were able to protect themselves from a much worse day because so many public bets had ridden on Buffalo. While the Bills loss was the book’s biggest win, bettors had their own victories in the prop market.

Feazel said the biggest wins for bettors on the day came from Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry scoring the first touchdown against his former team, the Tennessee Titans. Bills quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook rounded out the three most popular “end zone magnets,” meaning bettors placed heavy action on them to score first. Those touchdown props got bettors ahead early and often.

Other Results That Helped the Sportsbooks

The Bills weren’t the only favored team to lose. The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cincinnati Bengals 22-17, and the Dallas Cowboys pulled out a much-needed 34-30 win over the Houston Texans. For Dallas, it was essentially a must-win game, and the Cowboys covered and won outright.

“That made for a rare week where the book was happy to be a Cowboys fan,” Feazel said.

On the flip side, bettors cashed in on several other results. The Los Angeles Rams mounted a comeback to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. The New York Giants won 36-24 over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Chicago Bears beat the New York Jets 23-12. Each of those was a win for the betting public, proving that the day wasn’t a complete sweep for sportsbooks.

Eagles and Texans Futures Drift

The impact of Week 4 spilled over into the futures market. According to Feazel, the biggest drifters in the Super Bowl market were the Philadelphia Eagles, who moved from 16/1 to 22/1, and the Houston Texans, who slid from 40/1 to 66/1 after disappointing performances.

“As is often the case, their franchise quarterbacks followed suit in the MVP market, with their odds lengthening alongside their teams’ championship prospects,” Feazel added. In other words, when a team’s Super Bowl odds get worse, the quarterback’s MVP odds usually get worse too, since the MVP award is often tied to winning.

Looking Ahead: Falcons-Saints and the Week 4 Wrap-Up

According to BetMGM, the betting market for the upcoming Atlanta Falcons–New Orleans Saints game in New Orleans was already taking shape. The Saints were -120 moneyline favorites, getting 49% of bets and 39% of the handle, while the Falcons were +105 underdogs. The total sat at 47.5, with 66% of bets and 80% of the handle on the over—a sign that oddsmakers and bettors expected a close, high-scoring game.

Why This Week Mattered

Week 4 was a reminder that in the NFL, the more the public piles onto favorites, the more vulnerable sportsbooks are—and the more rewarding an underdog-heavy Sunday can be. The Patriots’ upset in Buffalo wasn’t just a feel-good story for New England; it was a financial lifeline for books across the market. With several public favorites losing and multiple parlays busting, the house came out ahead.

For bettors, the lesson is simple: NFL Sundays are unpredictable, and the sharpest sportsbooks always keep an eye on where the public money is flowing. On a day like this, the underdogs did the talking—and the sportsbooks were happy to listen.