jili tutorial

VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL Underdogs Turn Week 3 Upside Down as Backup QBs Deliver

By jili tutorial · September 30, 2026

VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL Underdogs Turn Week 3 Upside Down as Backup QBs Deliver

Introduction: A Week of Surprises in the NFL

Week 3 of the NFL season delivered a tidal wave of upsets, with underdogs covering spreads at an astonishing rate and backup quarterbacks stealing the spotlight. According to Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, the performance of veteran backup Case Keenum for the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football was yet another stark reminder that oddsmakers have consistently mispriced backup quarterbacks throughout the season.

The Bears, missing both their starting quarterback Caleb Williams and backup Tyson Bagent due to injuries, turned to 38-year-old Keenum. He hadn’t started a game since 2023, when he was with the Houston Texans. Yet Keenum led Chicago to a dominant 27–7 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, completing 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears entered the game as 3.5-point underdogs, making the win both an upset and a cover for those who backed Chicago.

“The Eagles drew heavy support in a perceived No. 1 versus No. 3 quarterback mismatch, but with backups now 7-3 straight up, the bigger mistake has been in the original numbers, not the betting that followed,” Mucklow said.

The Backup Quarterback Phenomenon: Why Oddsmakers Keep Getting It Wrong

What Does “Backup Quarterback” Mean in the NFL?

In professional football, each team typically carries three quarterbacks on its roster: a starter, a primary backup, and often a developmental or emergency third quarterback. When the starter is injured or unavailable, the backup steps in. Historically, backups have been viewed as a significant downgrade, leading oddsmakers and bettors to assume the team will perform worse.

However, Week 3 challenged that assumption. Backup quarterbacks across the league posted a combined record of 7–3 straight up (meaning they won the game outright, without considering the point spread). This suggests that the initial lines set by oddsmakers—which often heavily favor the team with the starting quarterback—may be too pessimistic about the backups’ capabilities.

Examples of Backup Success in Week 3

These results upend the conventional wisdom that a backup quarterback is a liability. Instead, they highlight how factors like game planning, supporting cast, and defensive schemes can sometimes mitigate the drop-off.

Underdog Upsets Reshape Week 3: A Rough Week for Favorites

Big Favorites Fall Hard

Week 3 was particularly brutal for several sizable favorites. The following teams lost outright despite being favored by significant margins:

Even teams that won outright failed to cover the spread. San Francisco 49ers won but did not cover the -7.5 spread, and the Detroit Lions also failed to cover -7.5 despite winning. This pattern of favorites falling short—either losing or not covering—created a chaotic betting landscape.

What Does “Covering the Spread” Mean?

For readers new to sports betting, “covering the spread” means a team wins by more than the point spread (if favored) or loses by fewer points than the spread (if underdog). When a favorite loses outright, it is a double loss for bettors who backed them on both the moneyline and the spread.

A Mixed Bag for Bettors and Books

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, described Sunday’s results as “a mixed bag.” The Lions and Buffalo Bills delivered big performances that benefited bettors, while the Cleveland Browns’ win over the Carolina Panthers was a result that favored the book.

“We once again found ourselves cheering for Deshaun Watson and the Browns on a Sunday,” Feazel noted. “Ultimately, the Browns came through for the book, and it will be interesting to see whether that result earns Cleveland any support from bettors when the Browns return to primetime on Thursday (Oct. 1) against a divisional rival (Pittsburgh Steelers).”

Key Games That Shaped the Week

Meanwhile, games that went according to form for bettors included the Buffalo Bills’ 24–16 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Detroit Lions’ 31–24 victory over the New York Jets, and the San Francisco 49ers’ 36–30 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Betting Impact: How the Bookmakers Fared

The Book’s Best and Worst Results

Feazel identified the Commanders’ win over Seattle and the Minnesota Vikings’ 23–16 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the biggest results for the book—meaning those outcomes produced the largest profits for the sportsbook. In contrast, the Bills’ and Lions’ wins were among the biggest results for bettors.

Late Overs Reward Bettors

“The later afternoon games turned into an Over bettor’s dream, with points piling up and Totals cashing across the board,” Feazel said. The term “Over” refers to betting on the total combined points scored in a game to exceed the number set by oddsmakers. In Week 3, many of those late games saw high scores, rewarding bettors who had taken the Over.

One notable example: The final field goal in the 49ers-Cardinals game not only gave San Francisco the win but also secured a cover for Arizona, adding one last win for bettors who had taken the Cardinals to cover the spread. Feazel also noted that the quiet 3–0 Vikings provided some relief for the book, extending their winning streak and delivering another favorable result.

Ravens-Cowboys: Lighter Action Than Expected

The Sunday night game between the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys (Ravens won 34–31) drew “lighter than anticipated” action, according to Feazel. This was surprising because that time slot typically attracts the week’s largest handle (total amount wagered). The bettors who did show up largely backed the Over, and they were rewarded.

Player Props and Parlays: A Dream Sunday for Bettors

Touchdown Parlays Cash In

Feazel highlighted an unusual trend on the player prop front: nine of the ten most-backed players found the end zone. This turned touchdown parlays—bets that combine multiple players to score touchdowns—into a steady stream of winning tickets.

“It was a dream Sunday for player prop bettors,” Feazel said.

A parlay is a single wager that links two or more individual bets; all selections must win for the parlay to pay out. When multiple popular player props hit, it creates a windfall for bettors and a challenging day for sportsbooks.

Why Backups Matter in Player Props

Backup quarterbacks can also affect player prop markets. When a backup enters the game, oddsmakers adjust projections for receivers, running backs, and even opposing defenses. The success of backups like Keenum and Mariota boosted the fantasy and betting value of their teammates—for example, Bears receivers likely exceeded expectations in Week 3.

Conclusion: What Week 3 Tells Us About the Season Ahead

Week 3 was a clear example of how unpredictable the NFL can be. Backup quarterbacks defied expectations, underdogs roared back, and sportsbooks were left recalibrating. As Craig Mucklow noted, “Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.” But the data suggests that oddsmakers may need to revisit how they value teams missing their starting quarterbacks.

For bettors, the lessons are twofold: first, never assume a backup quarterback means an automatic loss; and second, line shopping and understanding team context—such as injuries, recent performance, and matchup advantages—can reveal value where the public sees only a mismatch.

As the season progresses, Week 3’s surprises will undoubtedly influence how odds set future lines. Whether backups continue to outperform or revert to the mean remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the NFL betting landscape is never as simple as it appears.