Top Prediction Markets in Europe: The Biggest Platforms in 2026

Top Prediction Markets in Europe: The Biggest Platforms in 2026

Prediction markets have surged in popularity across Europe in 2026, but not all platforms share the spotlight equally. According to Blask data, a single platform—Polymarket—commands over 90% of measured European brand attention, leaving rivals with only a sliver of the pie. This guide dives deep into the current landscape, explaining how these platforms work, how they differ, and what regulatory hurdles they face. We’ll also explore why interest is exploding in some countries while remaining stable in others.

Key Findings at a Glance

• Polymarket holds 90.8% of European prediction‑market brand attention (Blask’s Brand Accumulated Power, or BAP).
• Kalshi comes second at 6.7% ; Manifold, Myriad, and ADI PredictStreet each register below 1%.
• The five platforms operate under vastly different models: blockchain‑based real‑money markets, play‑money forecasting, a U.S. regulated exchange, and a Gibraltar‑licensed betting intermediary.
• Several European nations—France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark—have taken regulatory action against Polymarket during the measurement period.
• The fastest growth occurred in France (+1108%), while the United Kingdom remained the largest market but grew only 22.5% .
• The FIFA World Cup ended in August 2026, causing dramatic drops in interest in several countries that month.

How Prediction Markets Are Ranked in This Guide

This ranking is based on Brand Accumulated Power (BAP) , a metric from Blask that measures the share of attention each brand receives relative to competitors across 28 European countries. Data spans August 2025 to August 2026.

What BAP Means (and Doesn’t Mean)

• Attention, not trading volume: A high BAP indicates that a platform is being talked about, searched for, or otherwise noticed—not necessarily that it has the most actual trades or users.
• Relative scores: A BAP of 90.8% means Polymarket captured nearly 91% of all prediction‑market attention in the sample. The scores sum to 100%.
• Volatility: BAP can spike or plummet quickly due to news events, regulatory actions, or viral social media moments.

Important Caveats

• Some platforms in the ranking are not direct competitors: for instance, Manifold uses play‑money, while ADI PredictStreet holds a gambling licence.
• Blask’s category includes community forecasting platforms alongside regulated exchanges, so the list is broader than just “real‑money” prediction markets.

The Top Five Prediction Markets in Europe (by Brand Attention)

Below is a detailed look at each platform, its model, regulatory status, and availability in Europe.

1. Polymarket

Blask BAP: 90.8%
Model: Blockchain‑based, real‑money prediction market
Launched: 2020

Polymarket allows users to trade shares in the outcome of future events. Shares are priced between $0 and $1; if the event occurs, a winning share is redeemed for $1, otherwise it becomes worthless. The platform covers politics, elections, geopolitics, sports, finance, crypto, AI, entertainment, and culture.

Two versions exist:

• Polymarket US: regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
• Polymarket International: the version available to European users and the focus of this article.

Regulatory restrictions in Europe (during the measurement period):

• France: ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in July 2026.
• Spain: blocked Polymarket (and Kalshi) in May 2026.
• Netherlands: took action against Polymarket in February 2026.
• Denmark: blocked Polymarket in August 2026.

Despite these actions, Polymarket’s brand attention remains overwhelmingly dominant.

2. Kalshi

Blask BAP: 6.7%
Model: US‑regulated exchange for event contracts (derivatives)
Launched: 2020 (approx.)

Kalshi functions as a derivatives exchange where users trade event contracts on real‑world outcomes. Shares trade between $0 and $1, with prices reflecting market‑implied probabilities. Markets include politics, sports, economics, weather, crypto, and entertainment.

Size and reach: While Kalshi’s 6.7% BAP seems small, its trading volume is enormous. Reuters reported roughly $27 billion in trading linked to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the platform had about 3 million users at that time. This illustrates the gap between attention (BAP) and actual activity.

European availability: Kalshi allows users from many countries outside the U.S., but with restrictions. As of September 21, 2026, its Member Agreement prohibits event contract trading for users domiciled or located in 14 European jurisdictions, including:

• United Kingdom
• France
• Italy
• Ireland
• Belgium
• Poland
• Portugal
• Switzerland
• (and others)

Users must also pass identity verification. Note that the restriction applies to trading event contracts, not necessarily to platform access or membership.

3. Manifold

Blask BAP: 0.98%
Model: Primarily play‑money forecasting platform
Launched: 2020 (approx.)

Manifold is a community‑driven platform where users create their own markets and trade using Mana, a non‑withdrawable play‑money currency. It previously offered sweepstakes markets but ended them in 2025 to refocus on free forecasting.

Key differences from real‑money platforms:

• Mana cannot be redeemed for cash.
• However, separate cash‑prize drawings (paid in USDC) are available.
• Manifold’s inclusion in the ranking shows that Blask’s “prediction market” category covers community forecasting, not just real‑money exchanges.

European accessibility: There are no specific country‑level restrictions beyond standard terms of service, but because it is play‑money, it faces fewer regulatory hurdles.

4. Myriad

Blask BAP: 0.65%
Model: Blockchain‑based platform with real‑money and points markets
Launched: 2021 (approx.)

Myriad started as a points‑based forecasting platform and added real‑money prediction markets in 2025. Users buy and sell shares priced $0–$1 tied to possible outcomes. The platform supports both automated market makers and an order book; orders are matched off‑chain before being recorded on the blockchain.

Markets covered: Politics, economics, sports, gaming, crypto, culture.

European restrictions: According to Myriad’s Terms of Use, restricted European countries include France, Malta, and Switzerland. Users elsewhere may access the platform subject to local laws.

5. ADI PredictStreet

Blask BAP: 0.22%
Model: Gibraltar‑licensed betting intermediary
Launched: 2022 (approx.)

ADI PredictStreet is unique among the top five because it operates under a Gibraltar gambling licence as a betting intermediary, even though its interface resembles a traditional prediction market (users trade shares). The platform focuses heavily on sports markets:

• Match results and tournament winners
• Individual player performance (e.g., goals, assists)

European availability: The platform accepts customers in countries where its services are not illegal, but it does not hold licences in every jurisdiction. For example, Germany’s gambling regulator forced ADI PredictStreet to block access in June 2026.

Why Polymarket Dominates Prediction Markets in Europe

Polymarket’s 90.8% BAP is staggering. Several factors likely contribute:

1. First‑mover advantage and large international audience: Polymarket launched early (2020) and built a global user base, especially in the crypto‑native community. Its high trading activity generates news, which in turn fuels more attention.
2. Broad topic coverage: Politics, sports, finance, and culture attract diverse audiences, increasing the chance of being mentioned in media and social networks.
3. News‑driven attention spikes: BAP measures attention, not volume. Regulatory crackdowns (e.g., France’s blocking order) actually increase brand awareness, even if they reduce trading. Polymarket’s dominance may partly reflect the publicity from these actions.
4. Network effects: A deep liquidity pool and active market makers make Polymarket more attractive to traders, which then drives more media coverage and search interest.

It’s important to note that Blask’s data does not isolate the exact contribution of each factor, but the combination is clearly powerful.

Where Prediction Markets Are Growing Fastest in Europe

Blask’s year‑on‑year data reveals explosive growth in several countries, alongside a more mature, slower growth market in the UK.

Key observations:

• The FIFA World Cup effect: The tournament ended in August 2026, which explains the dramatic declines in most countries that month—prediction market interest often peaks around major sporting events.
• France’s roller coaster: The 2329% spike in May coincided with the French government’s blocking order against Polymarket, generating massive media attention. The subsequent 87% drop in August was partly due to the World Cup ending and possibly a waning of the regulatory news cycle.
• Ukraine’s growth may be linked to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, where prediction markets offer a way to bet on conflict outcomes and peace negotiations.

Regulatory Landscape Across Europe

The platforms in this ranking face a patchwork of national regulations:

• Polymarket has been blocked in France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark—all within the measurement period. These actions demonstrate that authorities view unlicensed real‑money prediction markets as a form of gambling or unregulated financial activity.
• Kalshi restricts trading from 14 European countries, effectively barring many of the largest markets (UK, France, Italy) from using its event contracts.
• ADI PredictStreet holds a Gibraltar licence, but that does not grant automatic acceptance in other EU or EEA states—as seen in Germany where it was blocked.
• Manifold (play‑money) and Myriad (partially points‑based) face fewer restrictions because they do not involve real‑money wagers in many jurisdictions, but they still must comply with local laws regarding sweepstakes or gambling.

What does this mean for users? Anyone interested in prediction markets should check their country’s specific laws and the platform’s terms before signing up. Regulatory actions can change quickly, and some platforms may become inaccessible without notice.

How to Choose a Prediction Market Platform

If you’re looking to participate in prediction markets, consider these factors:

• Real‑money vs. play‑money: Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad (real‑money markets), and ADI PredictStreet involve actual cash. Manifold is primarily for fun and skill‑building. Decide what you want: financial returns or forecasting practice.
• Regulatory status: If you live in a restricted country, you may be forced to use a play‑money or alternative platform. Conversely, some users prefer regulated exchanges (like Kalshi in the US) for legal clarity.
• Market variety: Polymarket and Kalshi offer the widest range of topics. Manifold allows anyone to create markets, which can be a unique feature for niche forecasts.
• Blockchain involvement: Polymarket and Myriad use blockchain for settlement and transparency. Kalshi and ADI PredictStreet are centralised. Manifold is not blockchain‑based.
• Trading volume and liquidity: Higher liquidity means tighter spreads and easier trade execution—Polymarket leads here by a large margin.

Conclusion

Europe’s prediction market landscape in 2026 is heavily concentrated: Polymarket dominates by brand attention, but its lead may be partly inflated by regulatory news and media coverage. Kalshi holds a distant second, while smaller platforms carve out niches with different models—play‑money (Manifold), hybrid blockchain (Myriad), or licensed betting (ADI PredictStreet).

The rapid growth in countries like France, Ukraine, and the Netherlands shows that interest is still expanding, especially around major events. However, the regulatory environment remains fragmented and unpredictable. For now, Polymarket is the default choice for many Europeans—where it is accessible—but the long‑term dynamics could shift if regulators coordinate their approach or if alternative platforms gain critical mass.

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