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The Gambling Wire: Industry Responds to Brazil Betting Ban as G2E Turns to Prediction Markets

By jili tutorial · September 30, 2026

The Gambling Wire: Industry Responds to Brazil Betting Ban as G2E Turns to Prediction Markets

Introduction

A single Monday can reshape the gambling landscape. This week, the industry faced a sudden regulatory shock in Brazil, opened the doors to the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas, and saw both new financial products and new consumer gambling formats emerge in real time.

From Flutter’s decision to suspend Brazilian operations to Coinbase’s plan to enter the digital trading-card market, the news cycle was dense. This guide unpacks each major development, explains what is at stake, and provides context for the trends that will define the next phase of the gambling industry.

Brazil’s Provisional Betting Ban: What Happened

The Decree and the Immediate Impact

On September 25, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed a provisional decree that effectively prohibited online sports betting and casino gaming in the country. The decree took effect immediately, giving users until October 5 to withdraw any available funds. However, the measure is not permanent. Brazil’s Congress must approve the decree within 120 days for it to remain in force.

This creates a period of deep uncertainty for operators that had entered Brazil expecting a regulated, growth-oriented market. The provisional nature of the ban means that companies must plan for multiple scenarios, including a possible reversal, a negotiated regulatory framework, or a prolonged legal fight.

Why Brazil Matters to Global Gambling Operators

Brazil has long been seen as one of the most promising emerging markets for online gambling. With a large population, high mobile penetration, and strong sports culture, it offered a path to significant revenue growth. For many international operators, Brazil was a cornerstone of Latin American expansion. A sudden shutdown therefore threatens not only current revenue but also the strategic assumptions underpinning future investment.

The ban has produced an uneven financial impact across the industry. Some operators have acknowledged meaningful exposure, while others have downplayed the potential damage.

Flutter: Suspending Operations

Flutter confirmed that it had ceased operations in Brazil. The company warned that if the shutdown continued for the rest of the year, it would face a revenue reduction of approximately $70 million and a $20 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA. That is not a catastrophic hit for a company of Flutter’s size, but it is a meaningful reversal in a market where the company had invested heavily.

Entain: Holding Guidance, But Cautious

Entain maintained its full-year EBITDA guidance, but signaled that results would likely come in at the lower end of the range. The company projected that Brazil would account for 5% of its online net gaming revenue for the year. It also reduced its online net gaming revenue growth expectation to 4%–6%, including Brazil. In short, Entain is absorbing the shock, but not without some pressure.

Better Collective: Pulling Back on Forward-Looking Targets

Better Collective took a more defensive stance. The company lowered its 2026 guidance, suspended its 2027–2028 guidance, and halted its share buyback program. For a company that had been growing aggressively through acquisitions, this marks a clear shift toward capital preservation in the face of regulatory uncertainty.

Allwyn and Betano: Fighting Back

Not every company is simply absorbing the impact. Allwyn, which owns a 36.75% stake in Betano operator Kaizen Gaming, said that Kaizen is preparing legal action to protect its Brazilian license. According to some reports, Betano holds the top position in Brazilian market share. That makes the company a prime candidate to challenge the decree in court, especially if it believes the ban violates existing rights or legal expectations.

Supplier Exposure: A Different Picture

While operators have moved to cut exposure or defend their licenses, suppliers appear less affected. This is because their revenue models are not always tied to the betting handle itself, but rather to providing technology, data, and integrity services.

Genius Sports: Limited Direct Impact

Genius Sports reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, stating that it has minimal attributable betting revenue from Brazil. The company also noted that its technology relationship with the Brazilian Football Confederation remains unaffected. This highlights a key difference between operators and B2B suppliers: suppliers may continue to earn revenue through long-term data and media rights deals even if betting operations are paused.

Kambi: Low Single-Digit Exposure

Kambi CEO Werner Becher similarly described Brazil as a “low single-digit percentage of Kambi’s revenue.” He said the company expects the financial impact to be limited. That kind of messaging is designed to reassure investors that the Brazilian ban is not a systemic threat to the business.

What to Watch Next

The Brazilian situation is fluid. Operators may seek injunctions, and Congress may propose amendments or alternative legislation. The 120-day window is critical. If the decree is not approved, the previous regulatory structure may return. If it is approved, Brazil could eventually move toward a more structured but still restricted market. Either way, companies with Brazilian exposure need a playbook that balances legal action, compliance, and cost control.

Prediction Markets at G2E: A Regulatory Flashpoint

The Debate Over Sports Event Contracts

G2E opened with immediate controversy. A panel titled “Prediction Markets, Regulatory Oversight and Integrity” became the center of an industry-wide debate about whether sports-event prediction contracts should be treated like gambling.

Critics argue that these contracts bypass state licensing and consumer-protection regimes. Unlike regulated sportsbooks, prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket can offer event-based trading without the same oversight. This creates what some see as an uneven playing field, where traditional operators must comply with strict rules while prediction platforms do not.

Industry Voices Weigh In

Tres York: States Are Pushing Back

Tres York, Vice President of Government Relations at the American Gaming Association, said that 45 state attorneys general are on record opposing prediction markets. He also claimed that states have prevailed in 38 of 43 related state or federal court matters. That statistic, if accurate, suggests that the legal wind is blowing against prediction-market operators.

Joe Casole: Consumer Confusion

Joe Casole, Vice President of Legal and Regulatory Affairs at IC360, focused on the consumer experience. He argued that sportsbook apps and prediction-market apps look increasingly similar to users. If a consumer sees the same odds, the same events, and the same wagering interface, it is difficult to explain why one product is regulated and the other is not.

Shawn Fluharty: Regulation Over Prohibition

West Virginia Delegate Shawn Fluharty, who also works as a government affairs executive at Play’n Go, offered a more pragmatic view. He argued that sports-related prediction markets should remain under state oversight rather than being allowed to operate in a federal grey area. His analogy was simple: prediction markets are like unregulated moonshine, while sports betting is a fine bottle of wine. The former can be dangerous precisely because it is unregulated; the latter is safe because it is controlled.

The Upcoming Agenda

The issue did not end with the opening panel. G2E also featured sessions with titles like “A United Front: Confronting Prediction Markets” and “From Casino Floors to Prediction Markets: Comparing Compliance, Oversight, and Risk.” These sessions reflect growing concern that the rise of prediction markets is not just a competitive issue but a regulatory one.

IGT’s New Brand Identity: A Shift Toward Integration

A Rebranding After a Major Merger

IGT used G2E to unveil a new brand identity. The rebrand reflects the combined company formed by the merger of IGT’s Gaming & Digital business with Everi. The message is that the new IGT is no longer just a slot-machine or systems provider. It is now a full-service technology and content partner.

CEO Hector Fernandez said that IGT aims to provide operators with a more connected ecosystem across products and content. That language is important. In an increasingly competitive market, operators want fewer vendors and more integrated platforms. IGT is positioning itself as a one-stop shop.

What the New IGT Covers

The combined business now spans:

The company has organized its operations across three business segments: Gaming, Digital, and FinTech. This structure allows IGT to serve both land-based and online operators while offering cross-channel solutions. The brand refresh is not just cosmetic; it is meant to signal a new strategic direction.

Pricing, Volume, and the Sportsbook–Prediction Market Showdown

Understanding Implied Vig

To understand the competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets, it helps to understand “implied vig.” This is the built-in margin that a betting market includes. Lower vig generally means better odds for the bettor. Sportsbooks compete with each other on price, but they must also manage risk. Prediction markets, which operate like exchanges, can sometimes offer sharper prices because they rely on liquidity rather than risk management.

Week 3 Pricing Comparison

According to Citizens JMP Securities, the pricing gap between Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks narrowed in NFL Week 3. In a sample of 30 moneyline and totals markets, FanDuel averaged a 4.37% implied vig, narrowly edging out Kalshi at 4.38%. DraftKings averaged 4.52%.

That may seem like a small difference, but in the betting market, even a few basis points can shift customer volume. The bigger story was the change from Week 2, when Kalshi had held a more noticeable pricing advantage. Now the leading sportsbooks had caught up, at least on straight wagers.

Parlays and Combination Markets

The comparison was different for parlays and combination markets. Kalshi averaged a 26.3% implied vig, compared with 23.1% at FanDuel and 21.1% at DraftKings. That suggests that sportsbooks remain more competitive on complex, multi-leg bets, while prediction markets may still be learning how to price combinations effectively.

Record Volume Despite the Pricing Gap

Pricing, however, has not stopped demand. According to TickerTracker data, Kalshi recorded approximately $3.04 billion in trading volume on Sunday. That was nearly enough to set another single-day record, falling just short of Saturday’s number. It was the sixth time in September that Kalshi had broken its own daily volume record.

The exchange also saw the Rams/Broncos matchup become the second-most-traded NFL regular-season game in its history, behind only Colts/Chiefs in Week 2. This level of activity suggests that prediction markets are moving from a niche product to a mainstream betting alternative.

CME’s NHL Performance Futures: A New Sports Derivatives Model

A Shift Away from Event Contracts

CME Group recently stopped listing new expiries for its sports event contracts. That move was followed by the launch of futures tied to NHL team performance indexes. This is a different product from a binary prediction-market contract. Instead of betting on a single outcome, traders are taking a position on how a team performs over time.

How FutureSports Performance Indexes Work

Each NHL team starts at 7,500 points. The index moves up and down based on a range of statistical categories, including:

The futures settle against the value of that index. That means traders are not asking “will Team X win tonight?” but rather “will Team X outperform its expected performance index over the season?” This is a more complex, dynamic form of sports-linked investing.

Regulation and Market Access

The new products are CFTC-regulated futures. They can be traded on margin and are available in standard and micro-sized contracts. Wedbush is among the firms providing market access. This institutional structure gives the product legitimacy and may appeal to investors who want sports exposure without using a traditional sportsbook or prediction-market app.

The move is significant because it shows how derivatives exchanges can adapt to the sports sector without directly competing with licensed sports betting. It also creates a new way for sports fans and investors to engage with the NHL.

Coinbase and the Digital Trading-Card Race

Coinbase Enters the Pack-Opening Market

Coinbase is preparing to enter the rapidly growing digital trading-card market. The crypto exchange teased a mobile product that will allow customers to “rip packs” through its platform. Every pull is backed by a physical card, which users can either vault or have shipped to them. Promotional imagery featured Pokémon card packs, signaling that the product will target mainstream collectors, not just crypto-native users.

The Growing Competition

Coinbase is not alone. Several gambling and prediction-market operators have already entered or plan to enter the digital-card segment. Fanatics, Underdog, and sweepstakes casino Crown Coins have introduced products, while Betr is preparing a launch.

This convergence of trading cards, crypto, and gambling is worth watching. Digital packs appeal to the same psychological triggers as sports betting: anticipation, rarity, and the thrill of a big pull. But they also sit at the edge of gambling regulation, especially when cards have secondary-market value or can be resold for profit.

Why This Market Is Expanding

Digital trading cards offer a familiar, low-friction entry point for users who might not open a sportsbook account. They also create opportunities for operators to build engaged communities through collection, trading, and live events. As more companies enter the space, expect to see regulatory questions about whether pack-opening constitutes gambling, especially when real-world value is involved.

Key Takeaways

The gambling industry is expanding beyond the casino floor and the sportsbook. New regulatory challenges, new financial products, and new consumer formats are emerging simultaneously. The companies that succeed will be those that can navigate this complexity without losing sight of the fundamental need for consumer protection and regulatory clarity.