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Sudden Change on Prediction Markets Puts Them at Odds with Traders

By jili tutorial · September 5, 2026

Sudden Change on Prediction Markets Puts Them at Odds with Traders

It turns out American odds have more fans than expected. ProphetX sent a notice this week to traders subscribed to its Discord channel, nearly identical to an email that went out Sunday afternoon. As of Monday, the sports-centric prediction market no longer shows American odds—the format most U.S. sportsbooks use. Instead, traders opening the app now see percentages listed for point spreads, moneylines, totals, and props.

Judging by the reaction, you might think a player someone bet on had left the game early with an injury.

“Give me American odds back,” one trader posted on Discord. “Does anyone know of an extension that changes the odds for you?” asked another. “Will you ever add American odds back?” wondered a user on X, after ProphetX posted about its upcoming 2.0 version. It wasn’t a universal reaction, but in the social media echo chamber, it doesn’t need to be.

CFTC Guidance Behind the Change

This wasn’t a spur-of-the-moment decision. It follows a mandate the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) handed down to all federally-approved prediction markets nearly a month ago.

“We understand American odds are the format many of you know best, and we don’t take this change lightly. Operating in strict accordance with CFTC guidance is what allows ProphetX to remain a legally regulated exchange, available nationwide,” ProphetX wrote. “That status is what lets us keep bringing sports fans in this country the deepest liquidity and the best odds available anywhere, and we intend to keep it that way.”

What the CFTC Said

With legal battles unfolding from coast to coast—and possibly heading to the U.S. Supreme Court—the CFTC says prediction exchanges must present prices in a way that reflects their true nature, rather than resembling a “higher-margin, non-market-priced” online sports betting app.

“Commission staff warned that displaying pricing information in the ‘American’ odds format used by casino gambling bookmakers is likely to mislead market participants about the nature of the transaction and may deprive users of access to indicia of market depth and pricing impact,” the CFTC said in its Aug. 7 memorandum.

Memo to Michael Selig: online sports betting apps already let customers view odds in formats other than American odds, so the format alone isn’t what makes them sportsbooks. In a related twist, BetMGM recently tweaked its app to make the user experience feel more like a prediction market.

Traders Make Their Feelings Known

ProphetX isn’t the only platform fielding complaints. Novig, another sports-focused prediction market that launched a month ago, made the switch last week ahead of the Monday deadline—and its traders expressed similar frustration.

“Taking away american odds is huge L,” one Novig trader wrote, using “L” to mean a loss. “I don’t like it.”

To help ease the transition, Novig posted a link to its odds calculator on Discord. DraftKings and FanDuel prediction products drew similar reactions, and even Kalshi users saw a notice when logging into the app Monday.

The complaining will probably fade in time. People tend to be set in their ways when a familiar format changes, and the immediate reaction often outweighs the actual inconvenience. But this isn’t like Coca-Cola changing the Coke Zero formula and swapping the label from black to red—or the infamous formula change many of us remember from 40 years ago. The CFTC mandate only changes how prices are displayed. The labeling is different, but the product remains the same.

Playing the Percentages: Most Will Adjust

There’s some irony here. When online sports betting expanded across the U.S. a few years ago, a common complaint from industry disruptors was that American odds are confusing. Not all of those innovators or their products are still around.

For some people, American odds with their plus and minus signs look strange. If you grew up with fractional odds through horse racing, it can take a few minutes to get comfortable with another format. And as sports betting expanded into Kentucky, more than one person asked why a $1 bet at +120 wouldn’t win them $120. Those people usually didn’t stick around sports betting for very long before moving on to something else.

Prediction markets may still face an uncertain future when it comes to sports contracts, but traders will likely get the hang of percentages—whether they like it or not. Especially with the NFL season kicking off next week.