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Sportsbooks to Handle 80% of NFL Bets, More Than 3x Prediction Market Volume

By jili tutorial · September 19, 2026

Sportsbooks to Handle 80% of NFL Bets, More Than 3x Prediction Market Volume

Introduction: The Persistent Dominance of Traditional Sportsbooks

Despite the rapid growth of prediction markets and widespread speculation that they would erode the market share of traditional sportsbooks, the established betting industry is projected to retain a commanding lead during the 2025 NFL season. According to a fresh analysis by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG), regulated sportsbooks will still account for nearly 80% of all professional football wagers this year. This strength underscores the resilience of legacy operators even as prediction exchanges carve out a meaningful—but still secondary—niche.

Key Figures: $40.5 Billion in Total NFL Wagers

EKG estimates that bettors will place a total of $40.5 billion on the NFL through regulated wagering venues during the current season. Of that sum:

This translates to a 79%/21% split in favor of sportsbooks. To put that in perspective, prediction market volume is less than one-third of sportsbook handle.

Understanding “Handle Analog”

A crucial nuance in comparing these two channels is the use of handle analog—a metric EKG employs to create a cleaner comparison. Because prediction markets operate differently from sportsbooks (with trades between users rather than wagers against a house), raw volume figures are not directly comparable. Handle analog adjusts for these structural differences, allowing a fair side-by-side look at market share.

Why Sportsbooks Still Lead: Structural Advantages

1. Massive Customer Acquisition and Retention Budgets

One of the most significant advantages sportsbooks hold is their ability to offer large sign-up and loyalty bonuses. EKG notes that prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because their clients trade against each other, not against a house that can afford to subsidize promotions.

Examples of sportsbook welcome offers for the 2025 NFL season include:

In contrast, prediction market bonuses typically range between $25 and $50—a fraction of what sportsbooks offer. This disparity makes it much harder for prediction exchanges to attract and retain casual recreational bettors.

2. Established User Base and Brand Trust

Traditional sportsbooks have been operating for years—some for decades in regulated markets. They have built large customer databases, loyalty programs, and brand recognition. Prediction markets, by comparison, are still a relatively new sector with “less of an installed base,” as EKG observes. Even when recreational bettors are given a direct choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, surveys consistently show a preference for the former.

Sports betting is now legal in 39 U.S. states (plus Washington D.C.) and several Canadian provinces, while prediction markets operate under a patchwork of regulatory frameworks. Notably, prediction markets have carved out significant niches in California and Texas, where sports betting remains illegal. However, the threat they posed to sportsbooks appears to be easing, as more states legalize traditional wagering and existing sportsbooks solidify their footholds.

Prediction Markets: A Meaningful but Second-Place Channel

Appeal to Sharp Bettors and Whales

Prediction markets have proven highly effective at attracting sharp bettors and whales—sophisticated traders who often face limits or outright bans from sportsbooks. These exchanges offer a level playing field where skill and information matter more than the house edge. For this reason, prediction markets are seen as a “meaningful second channel” for NFL wagering.

Geographic Patterns

It is widely believed that prediction markets are especially popular in states where sports betting is prohibited (like California and Texas). Residents in those states may turn to yes/no exchanges as a legal alternative. Yet, even in those regions, sportsbooks are not standing still; they lobby heavily for legalization and partner with tribal and commercial operators.

Growth Outlook: 8% Year-Over-Year Increase

EKG projects that the overall regulated sports wagering industry will grow 8% year-over-year for the NFL season. This rate is notable because it outpaces the current steady growth rate of 5% (which excludes temporary effects from the World Cup). Achieving 8% growth is particularly impressive given that only two new jurisdictions—Missouri and Alberta, Canada—have joined the live and legal ranks since the end of the 2025 football season. Additionally, Arkansas opened its market to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year, adding further competition but not a brand-new state.

What Drives Growth Even With Limited New Markets?

The growth comes from several sources:

Marketing Battle: Digital Spending by Prediction Markets

While prediction markets cannot match sportsbook bonus offers, they are not sitting idle. EKG reports from channel checks indicate that prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including:

EKG notes that if this digital spending continues to accelerate, their current forecast might end up looking “light by the end of the season.” Still, for now, sportsbooks maintain the upper hand in both brand awareness and customer incentives.

Conclusion: A Two-Channel Future

The 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be another record year for regulated wagering, with sportsbooks retaining their overwhelming majority of bets. Prediction markets are growing and will remain a meaningful outlet—especially for sharp bettors and those in restricted states—but they are not yet on track to displace the traditional industry. The combination of larger bonuses, broader legal access, and an established user base keeps sportsbooks firmly in the lead.

As the industry evolves, both channels will likely coexist, each serving a distinct segment of the betting public. Sportsbooks will continue to dominate the recreational mass market, while prediction exchanges serve a more specialized, often sharper, clientele.