SBC Summit Lisbon: Prediction markets dominate day three

By jili tutorial · October 2, 2026

SBC Summit Lisbon 2026: Prediction Markets Take Center Stage – A Comprehensive Guide

The third and final day of the SBC Summit Lisbon, held on 1 October, was dominated by a single theme: prediction markets. As the sector grows at breakneck speed, regulators, operators, and industry experts gathered at the Global Prediction Markets Forum to debate classification, European expansion, and the looming risks of scandal. Below, we unpack the key discussions, provide context on the regulatory landscape, and outline what the future holds for this fast-evolving industry.

The Core Debate: Are Prediction Market Users Traders or Bettors?

One of the most heated discussions at the summit revolved around the fundamental classification of prediction market participants. The answer matters because it determines which regulatory framework applies – securities law, gambling law, or something entirely new.

The Split at the Lisbon Panel

Andrew Lyman, Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner, argued that prediction market customers are traders, not bettors. Gibraltar’s dedicated prediction markets framework, which came into force on 13 July, treats these platforms as financial instruments. Lyman emphasized that trying to ban or block the sector is futile: “If you are in denial and you want to ban or block, then you are fighting against the tide of consumers who really want this product. Therefore, it’s much better to regulate than to ban or block.” He predicted that prediction markets will continue to grow on consumer demand and that regulators must prevent the sector from falling into black and grey markets.
Charles Mizzi, CEO of the Malta Gaming Authority (MGA), took the opposite view, classifying prediction market users as bettors. He confirmed that operators are actively applying for prediction market licences in Malta under the MGA’s existing framework. “There is a lot of interest. Over the last months, we’ve seen huge interest from operators. We’ve had a lot of discussions with them,” said Mizzi.
Zach Doctor (WagerWire), Terence Cassar (GTG), and other panelists sided with Gibraltar’s view, calling users “traders not bettors.”

This regulatory divergence reflects a broader global uncertainty. In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has oscillated between allowing and restricting event contracts. In Europe, the lack of a harmonised definition creates a patchwork of rules – a challenge that was highlighted throughout the day.

Kalshi and Matchbook on the European Puzzle

Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer at Kalshi – a US-based regulated prediction market platform – revealed that the company has been in talks with European regulators, including the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). However, he does not expect a full European launch anytime soon due to the fragmented regulatory landscape. “We would love to. We are talking to regulators across the pond like ESMA and others. You can’t get the regulation clarified in one go, it’s going to be a process,” said Jha.

Alex Gowar, Chief Growth Officer at Matchbook, offered a more cautious take on European demand. He noted that in regulated European markets, customers already have access to sportsbooks, limiting the immediate need for prediction markets. “I think for those for whom there is no choice, prediction markets have been an extraordinary opportunity in innovation. In regulated markets such as Europe, customers can choose a sportsbook instead,” he said. He added that operators would need to invest heavily in customer education.

Martyn Elliott, Director of SBC Insights, predicted that the UK will eventually regulate prediction markets in some form, at least for institutional investors. “Eventually it will definitely happen. The financial industry is so important to the UK economy that the government wants it to be as competitive as possible.”

PredictIt’s Warning: A Bust Before a Boom

John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle – the owner of PredictIt – delivered a sobering message on a panel titled “An industry on the cusp of boom or bust – what’s the future of futures?” He expects a major insider trading scandal, either in finance or sports, to trigger a serious regulatory backlash. “There is going to be a bust before a boom,” he said. He added: “The resiliency of prediction markets is going to outlast the legislative and the judicial storm that’s coming our way.”

Joey Levy, CEO and co-founder of Betr, argued that the boom is already underway and that the ultimate test will come from the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS). “I don’t think anybody truly knows where SCOTUS is going on this,” he said, referencing pending cases that could reshape the legal foundation for prediction markets.

This tension between optimism and caution underscores the sector’s vulnerability to high-profile scandals and shifting jurisprudence.

Brazil’s Ban: A Legal and Market Disaster?

Bernardo Cavalcanti Freire, legal counsel at the Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL), called Brazil’s recent ban on prediction markets illegal. He expressed optimism that a court intervention could reopen the market in the coming days as the provisional measure is scrutinised. “I’m very optimistic. I think that it’s completely illegal what happened. But if we can get an intervention, then all the lights will return automatically,” he said.

Beatriz Melges Lopes, LATAM Director at BetConstruct AI, warned that the ban has driven players back to the black market. “Players are not going to stop placing bets because you don’t have advertisements or governance. They’re going to find a place that they can bet.” Her comment echoes a common theme: prohibiting prediction markets often pushes activity underground, making regulation even harder.

SBC Summit: A Long-Term Commitment to Lisbon

In a significant development, SBC founder and CEO Rasmus Sojmark and Lisbon Mayor Carlos Moedas signed a long-term agreement for the SBC Summit to return to Lisbon every year until 2030. Andrew McCarron, Managing Director of SBC Media, also announced the launch of SBC Summit Europe in Amsterdam, taking place from 19 to 21 April next year. The new event will have a specific focus on regulated markets. “We will have regulators there, as what we’ve seen from the past few weeks is that dialogue with regulators is going to be critical to the sustainability of this industry,” McCarron said.

This commitment highlights the growing importance of Europe as a hub for gambling and prediction market conferences, even as regulatory frameworks remain in flux.

Key Takeaways from the Global Prediction Markets Forum

Regulatory classification is unresolved: The gap between Gibraltar’s “trader” view and Malta’s “bettor” view shows that the industry lacks a unified identity. This creates compliance headaches for operators looking to expand across borders.
European expansion is slow but coming: Kalshi’s cautious approach and Matchbook’s demand analysis suggest that prediction markets in Europe will require regulatory clarity and customer education before they can thrive.
Insider trading risk looms: PredictIt’s warning of a “bust before a boom” is a reminder that innovation often outpaces regulation, and one scandal could set the sector back years.
Brazil’s ban may be temporary: Legal challenges and black market pressures indicate that outright bans are unlikely to succeed in the long run.
SBC is betting big on Lisbon: The multi-year agreement and the new Amsterdam event signal confidence in the conference model and the industry’s growth trajectory.