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Prediction Market Volume to Rise to $10T by 2035 as Sports Share Declines: A Deep-Dive Guide

By jili tutorial · September 23, 2026

Prediction Market Volume to Rise to $10T by 2035 as Sports Share Declines: A Deep-Dive Guide

Understanding the Prediction Market Boom

Prediction markets—platforms where users buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of future events—have evolved from niche curiosity to a rapidly expanding financial sector. According to new research from Bernstein analysts, the total annual volume of these “yes/no” exchanges could explode to $10 trillion by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%. To put that into perspective, Bernstein’s team, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, projects $410 billion in turnover for 2026. If the $10 trillion forecast materializes, that would represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 baseline in just nine years.

This guide unpacks the research, explains the forces driving this growth, and explores how the composition of prediction market volume is expected to shift dramatically—away from sports and toward financial and corporate key performance indicator (KPI) contracts.

The Current State of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets operate like simplified futures exchanges. Participants trade contracts that pay out $1 if a specific event occurs (e.g., “Will the Fed cut rates in March?”) and $0 otherwise. The market price reflects the crowd’s estimated probability. While the concept has existed for decades, online platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt have brought it mainstream attention.

Why Growth Is Exploding

Several factors are fueling the surge:

Bernstein’s 70% annual compound growth rate implies a sector that is not just scaling but fundamentally reshaping how people speculate on uncertainty.

The 2035 Vision: $10 Trillion Annual Turnover

From $1 Trillion to $10 Trillion in Five Years

Earlier optimistic forecasts now look conservative. In April 2024, Bernstein themselves estimated $1 trillion in prediction market volume by 2030. Around the same time, Bank of America projected $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon went further, calling for $1.5 trillion annually by 2030.

The new $10 trillion by 2035 figure implies that the industry will not only reach but dramatically overshoot those 2030 targets—achieving roughly ten times that level just five years later. The jump suggests accelerating adoption, not linear growth.

Revenue Implications for Operators

Bernstein previously calculated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate up to $10.8 billion in revenue for exchange operators (primarily from trading fees). Scaling that to $10 trillion would imply ~$108 billion in annual operator revenue—a figure comparable to the revenue of major global exchanges like the CME or ICE.

However, this assumes fee structures remain similar. Increased competition and regulatory costs could compress margins, but the top-line opportunity is enormous.

Sports Contracts: The Current Lifeblood—But Not Forever

Today, sports event contracts dominate prediction market volume. Whether it’s betting on the winner of a football match, the total points scored in an NBA game, or the result of a tennis Grand Slam, sports derivatives are the industry’s single largest category.

According to Bernstein, sports contracts currently account for the majority of turnover on leading yes/no exchanges. But that dominance is set to fade. The research firm estimates that by 2035, sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to just 35%.

Why Sports Will Lose Share

This does not mean sports will shrink in absolute terms—rather, other categories will grow so much faster that sports’ relative share drops significantly.

Financial Derivatives Take the Lead: 49% by 2035

Bernstein projects that by 2035, financial derivatives—including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies, and stocks—will account for 49% of turnover on prediction markets, surpassing sports to become the largest volume driver.

Crypto Contracts Already Show the Way

Cryptocurrency event contracts are already a major force. Bernstein points out that crypto-related contracts represent at least 20% of turnover on the two largest prediction markets (likely Polymarket and Kalshi). Examples include:

These markets attract crypto-native traders who are already comfortable with 24/7 trading and tolerate high volatility.

Commodities: A Sleepy Category Waking Up

One of the most telling data points comes from a single prediction market operator. Last year, commodities volume was a paltry $2 million. In August alone, it surpassed $410 million, and year-to-date figures are approaching $600 million. That’s a growth rate of over 20,000% in just a few months.

What drove this? Likely catalysts include:

This demonstrates that prediction markets can quickly adapt to real-world macro events, drawing in traders who might otherwise use futures or options.

Single-Stock Perp Futures and More

Beyond simple event contracts, platforms are developing perpetual futures (perps) that allow traders to speculate on the long-term price direction of a single stock without expiry dates. These are expanding from crypto into equities and commodities. For example:

These instruments blur the line between prediction markets and traditional derivatives exchanges, offering new liquidity and hedging opportunities.

KPI Markets: The Next Big Frontier

Perhaps the most innovative development is the rise of KPI-linked event contracts. Instead of trading a company’s stock price, users can trade on a single corporate metric—such as production output, deliveries, or subscriber growth.

Bernstein’s analysts highlight this shift: “We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself.”

Real-World Examples

Some exchange operators have already filed plans with regulators to introduce KPI-linked contracts. Potential products could include:

These contracts offer several advantages:

The $900 Trillion Opportunity

Bernstein estimates that the global market for financial contracts (including all derivatives, not just prediction markets) will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year. If prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, annual volume would increase by $4.7 trillion—nearly half of the $10 trillion target. This suggests the financial derivatives category has enormous headroom.

What This Means for Operators, Traders, and Regulators

For Exchange Operators

For Traders and Investors

Regulatory Challenges

The CFTC and other global regulators are still wrestling with how to classify event contracts. Sports contracts have faced legal battles; financial and KPI contracts may face even stricter scrutiny due to their similarity to traditional futures.

Risks and Uncertainties

While the $10 trillion forecast is compelling, several risks could derail it:

Conclusion: A New Financial Infrastructure?

The prediction market industry is on the cusp of a paradigm shift. From a sports-betting niche to a multi-trillion-dollar financial ecosystem, the timeline Bernstein outlines—$410 billion in 2026, $10 trillion by 2035—is aggressive but not implausible given the exponential adoption of crypto derivatives and the growing demand for micro-targeted hedging tools.

The key takeaway? Sports will no longer be the kingmaker. Financial derivatives, driven by crypto, commodities, and especially KPI contracts, will dominate. For operators, this means pivoting quickly. For traders, it means new tools and strategies. For regulators, it means a delicate balancing act between innovation and protection.

If the 70% compound growth rate holds, the prediction market landscape of 2035 will be almost unrecognizable—a fully integrated part of the global financial infrastructure, trading trillions daily on everything from Fed rates to iPhone shipments.