jili tutorial

Over 80% of Betting Sites Recommended by Instagram Are Operating Illegally in Brazil: A Deep Dive into the Research

By jili tutorial · September 17, 2026

Over 80% of Betting Sites Recommended by Instagram Are Operating Illegally in Brazil: A Deep Dive into the Research

Executive Summary: What the Study Reveals

A groundbreaking study from the Rede em Jogo project, conducted by CondadoLab at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), has uncovered a disturbing reality for Brazilian social media users: 84% of the betting operators most frequently recommended by Instagram’s algorithm are not legally authorized to operate in Brazil. Published by The Intercept Brasil on Monday, this research analyzed over 55,000 Instagram accounts and cross-referenced every identified betting-related profile against the official registry maintained by Brazil’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA). The findings paint a picture of a largely unregulated, algorithm-driven ecosystem where illegal gambling operators thrive alongside content creators who actively promote gambling as a legitimate income source.

How Instagram’s Algorithm Fuels the Problem

The Domino Effect of Following One Account

The research reveals a troubling pattern: the problem begins the moment a user follows a single account related to betting. Instagram’s recommendation system—designed to keep users engaged—immediately begins suggesting other profiles within the same niche. This creates a rapid cascade effect, exposing users to an ever-growing network of betting sites, influencers, and specialized gambling pages. Among the top 100 most-recommended profiles, the study found accounts that collectively have amassed over 6 million followers and published 114,000 posts.

The study identifies three distinct types of accounts that Instagram’s algorithm consistently promotes:

  1. Betting operators – Companies that run sportsbooks, casinos, or other gambling platforms.
  2. Content creators – Influencers, tipsters, and “professional gamblers” who produce betting-related content.
  3. Media outlets – Channels, portals, journalists, and gossip profiles that cover sports and gambling platforms, often framing advertisements as news stories.

The Marketing Tactics: Gambling Disguised as Financial Opportunity

Case Study: “Pedro” and the Premium Telegram Groups

One of the most concerning findings involves a content creator the study refers to as “Pedro” (a fictitious name for a professional gambler). In an Instagram story, Pedro speaks directly to the camera, offering followers a “unique opportunity.” He announces a “super promotion for a premium group, which has higher odds.” The usual monthly price for access to his Telegram group is BRL 397 (approximately $77.18). However, Pedro claims that for one day only, he would release both groups together for “only BRL 14.91 per month on the annual plan.”

This Telegram group represents Pedro’s core product: a paid subscription service where he publishes sports predictions, tips on which betting operators to use, and information on higher-value betting odds. The study found this business model—selling access to exclusive prediction groups—to be widespread among recommended profiles.

Gambling as a “Career Path”: The Language of Income Generation

The research documented influencers who present themselves as “tipsters,” “sports traders,” or “professional gamblers.” They sell access to groups, predictions, spreadsheets, and other betting-related products, while systematically framing gambling as a viable income-generating activity. According to The Intercept Brasil, some content creators use explicitly enticing phrases such as:

These creators frequently post screenshots of alleged user earnings and publish content that presents gambling as a form of investment rather than a high-risk activity with negative expected value.

Beyond Sports: The Rise of “Fortune Tiger” and Casino Game Promoters

The study reveals that Instagram’s recommendation system doesn’t stop at sports betting. There is a thriving niche of content creators focused on casino games, particularly the controversial game Fortune Tiger. These creators employ communication strategies nearly identical to sports betting influencers.

Case Study: “João” and Pattern-Based Gambling Myths

Another anonymized influencer, “João,” shares live game-style videos in his Instagram stories, simulating high-paying gaming sessions. In these videos, he points out which operator or game “is paying the most.” In other content, he posts screenshots of his exclusive Telegram group, where he shares “highest payout” times for specific games.

Perhaps most alarmingly, João “teaches” his followers to observe patterns in the game interface—such as an animation on the tiger’s face, a specific glow that appears, or a sequence of supposed events that indicate a big win is imminent. These claims are not supported by any evidence; modern online casino games use random number generators (RNGs) that make pattern-based prediction impossible.

Operator Content: Humor, AI, and Generic Promotion

On Instagram profiles owned by betting operators themselves, content varies according to brand strategy. The research found:

The use of artificial intelligence in creating promotional material was noted as a particular concern, as it allows for high-volume content production with minimal human oversight.

Why Being Licensed Abroad Doesn’t Matter in Brazil

A critical finding of the study is that many of the recommended accounts belong to international companies. While these operators may hold valid licenses in their countries of origin, this does not grant them authorization to operate in Brazil. Under Brazilian law, any betting operator targeting Brazilian consumers must obtain explicit authorization from the SPA (Secretariat of Prizes and Bets). Companies that fail to do so are operating illegally, regardless of their legal status elsewhere.

How Illegal Operators Use Regulation to Appear Legitimate

The research uncovered a troubling pattern: many illegal operators actively appropriate the language of regulation to appear trustworthy. They:

As the study notes, “the regulations developed to protect players begin to function as a means of legitimisation,” with illegal operators co-opting regulatory terminology to build false trust.

The Role of Specialized Media

The ecosystem is completed by specialized media profiles—channels, portals, journalists, and gossip accounts—that focus on reporting sports news while simultaneously promoting gambling platforms. In this content, advertising for online betting sites is positioned differently: presented as news or editorial content, these profiles discuss the highest odds on the market, operator features, regulatory changes, and various bettor anecdotes—ranging from those who made huge financial gains to those who lost everything.

Meta’s Role: Policies, Loopholes, and Accountability

What Meta’s Policies Actually Say

Meta, Instagram’s parent company, has internal governance policies regarding gambling content. According to these policies:

The Gap: Paid Media vs. Organic Content

The study highlights a critical distinction: Meta’s authorization process is restricted to paid media (advertisements). For organic content—posts, stories, reels, and recommendations that users see without paid promotion—Meta’s policies are far less specific. In the “restricted products and services” section, Meta states that it encourages safety, prevents potentially harmful activities, and displays content only to users over 18. However, the policies:

The Systemic Risk: Meta as a Major Player

The study concludes that the absence of governance policies aligned with current regulations—combined with Instagram’s algorithmic recommendation system—creates a “systemic risk” in which Meta plays a major role. The platform’s algorithm actively amplifies illegal operators and harmful content, while the company’s policies provide insufficient safeguards.

Recommendations: Expanding Platform Obligations

What Needs to Change

The researchers argue that addressing this systemic risk requires expanding the obligations of digital platforms. Specifically, they call for:

  1. Stronger SPA regulations – Beyond transparency reports and mandatory removal after official administrative decisions, the SPA should require platforms to implement proactive monitoring systems.
  2. National Data Protection Agency (ANPD) involvement – Data protection frameworks should intersect with gambling regulation to prevent exploitation of user data for targeted gambling promotion.
  3. Mandatory social and technological resources – Platforms must be required to deploy resources for monitoring, identifying, and moderating illegal gambling content before it reaches users.

Conclusion: A Broken System in Need of Repair

The PUC-Rio study paints a stark picture: Instagram’s recommendation system is actively funneling millions of Brazilian users toward illegal betting operators, while a network of influencers and media profiles presents gambling as a viable path to financial freedom. Despite Meta’s stated policies, the platform lacks robust mechanisms to verify operator licenses, monitor content, or remove illegal actors. As regulation in Brazil evolves, the research makes clear that solely relying on platform self-regulation is insufficient—legal frameworks must mandate proactive oversight and accountability from the companies that control these powerful algorithmic systems.