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NFL Betting Trends After a Wild Week 2: Bills, Dolphins, and the Best Bets for the Season

By jili tutorial · September 22, 2026

NFL Betting Trends After a Wild Week 2: Bills, Dolphins, and the Best Bets for the Season

The NFL season is only two weeks old, but betting patterns are already forming. If you’re looking for early signals to guide your wagers, two clear trends have emerged: ride the Buffalo Bills and their over, and fade the Miami Dolphins regardless of the spread. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders have become a heavy liability for sportsbooks after a surprising 2-0 start, and a dramatic Week 2 reversal flipped the script on bettors who cleaned up in Week 1.

This guide breaks down the key takeaways from the first two weeks, explains the underlying betting dynamics, and offers actionable insights for the rest of the season. All facts and quotes come from industry insiders at Boyd Gaming, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook.

Betting on the Buffalo Bills: The Over is the Overwhelming Trend

The Bills have started their season with two high-scoring victories: a 36–31 win over the Houston Texans in Houston, followed by a 41–31 home win against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. Both games easily cleared the over/under line, and neither came down to the wire.

Why Bettors Keep Piling On

Bob Scucci, vice-president of Race and Sports Operations at Boyd Gaming Corp., explains the psychology: “Two of the biggest games so far this season have the Bills and the over, both in Week 1 and 2, and the Bills got there both times. Bettors remember what teams made them money, and they’re going to keep riding them until they disappoint.”

This behavior is common in sports betting. Once a team or a bet type (like the over) delivers consistent wins, casual and sharp bettors alike chase the trend. The Bills next face the 0–2 Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 27, at 1 p.m. EDT. Early money is already pouring in on Buffalo.

“We’ve already gotten money on the Bills against the Chargers,” Scucci noted. “The fact the Chargers lost to the Raiders 26–14 doesn’t help people wanting to bet against the Bills. So that’s all the more reason we’re seeing the money on the Bills.”

Key takeaway: The Bills are a public darling right now. If you’re looking to fade the public, consider waiting for a line move or betting on the Chargers if you believe in regression. Otherwise, riding the Bills and the over is the consensus move.

Fading the Miami Dolphins: A Weekly Strategy?

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Miami Dolphins have become a regular target for bettors looking to fade (bet against) a team. The Dolphins lost 27–13 to the Raiders in Week 1 and then were crushed 35–13 by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2. Neither game was close, and the spread didn’t offer much help.

What Does “Fading” Mean?

Fading a team means betting against them, regardless of the point spread. In the Dolphins’ case, even when they are underdogs, public sentiment is so negative that sportsbooks see heavy action on their opponents. Scucci puts it bluntly: “They’re going to be betting against the Dolphins every week too.”

This is a classic example of a team with low public confidence. The Dolphins have been among the worst teams in recent memory, and early results reinforce that belief. For bettors, continuing to fade Miami is a safe play until they show signs of life – but beware of lines that adjust too far.

Tip for bettors: If you want to fade the Dolphins, do it early in the week before the line moves. Sportsbooks will shade the line toward the opponent to balance action, so waiting could cost you value.

Las Vegas Raiders: Sentimental Betting and Futures Liability

The Raiders have jumped to a 2–0 record with impressive wins over the Dolphins and the Chargers. That success has created a significant liability for sportsbooks on Raiders futures bets – especially those placed at long odds before the season started.

Understanding “Liability”

In sportsbook terms, liability is the potential payout the book must make if a bet wins. When many bettors wagered on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl at high odds (e.g., 50-to-1 or 100-to-1), the book is exposed to a massive payout if the Raiders actually pull it off. Scucci confirms: “They’re clearly our biggest liability on the futures-bet market to win the Super Bowl. People bet them at long odds for that.”

Why Raiders Are Drawing More Support

After the Week 1 win over Miami, bettors were cautious because the Dolphins were considered the worst team. But after the Raiders beat the Chargers as underdogs (26–14), confidence spiked. “After yesterday’s game, they’re going to draw a lot more support because they were pretty good underdogs,” Scucci added.

Actionable insight: If you’re considering a Raiders futures bet, be aware that the odds have likely shortened. However, if you believe the Raiders are overachieving, you might find value in betting against them in upcoming weeks, as public money pushes their lines too high.

Week 2 Reversal: How Sportsbooks Recovered from a Bettor-Friendly Week 1

Week 1 was a dream for bettors, with many favorites covering and scoring totals climbing. But Week 2 flipped the script – and sportsbooks loved it.

The Shift from High-Scoring to Defensive Games

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, described the contrast: “The book enjoyed a steady diet of low-scoring primetime games in Week 1, but Week 2 began with an all-you-can-eat touchdown buffet for bettors on Thursday night. Seven of the eight most popular touchdown scorers cashed, and the only player who failed to score, DJ Moore, was refunded under Injury Protection.”

Then came Sunday’s early games. “Underdogs and defenses came out swinging, offenses went quiet, and touchdowns were much harder to locate,” Feazel said. “In Week 1, it felt like everyone with a jersey found the end zone. This Sunday, even the end zone required a reservation.”

Biggest Wins for the Books

At Boyd Gaming, the three results that most helped the sportsbooks were:

Later games went better for bettors: the 49ers crushed the Dolphins, the Seahawks blew out the Cardinals, and the Cowboys beat the Commanders. But the early damage was contained.

What this means for you: Week 2 showed that early-season trends are fragile. Don’t assume Week 1’s high-scoring pattern will continue. Pay attention to line movements and public sentiment, and consider contrarian betting when a team is overhyped.

Touchdown Parlays: High Risk, High Reward

One of the most memorable bets from Week 2 was a $100 same-game parlay on the Lions vs. Bills game that paid out $50,000. The parlay required Josh Allen to score the first touchdown, plus anytime touchdowns from Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Dalton Kincaid, and Sam LaPorta.

How Same-Game Parlays Work

A same-game parlay combines multiple bets from a single game into one wager. Each leg must hit for the parlay to win. While the potential payout is enormous, the odds are extremely low. In this case, the bettor correctly predicted six different touchdown scorers – a very unlikely outcome.

Caution: Same-game parlays are extremely difficult to win. Sportsbooks love them because they have a high house edge. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never rely on them for consistent returns.

Key Takeaways for Bettors Going Forward

  1. Ride the Bills (cautiously). They are hot, but lines will adjust. Look for value in the over if it stays reasonable.
  2. Fade the Dolphins. Until they prove otherwise, betting against Miami is a strong trend – but watch for a potential bounce-back spot.
  3. Don’t chase Raiders futures. The liability is high, and sentiment is inflated. Consider betting against the Raiders if you think they’re overachieving.
  4. Watch for Week-to-Week reversals. Week 1 favored bettors; Week 2 favored books. Be ready to adapt your strategy.
  5. Avoid same-game parlays for profit. They are fun but have terrible expected value.

Conclusion

The first two weeks of the NFL season have already shaped clear betting narratives. The Bills are a public powerhouse, the Dolphins are a weekly fade, and the Raiders are a sentimental darling creating sportsbook headaches. Week 2 also reminded everyone that football is unpredictable – and sportsbooks thrive on that volatility.

Whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned pro, use these trends as a guide, not a guarantee. Stay disciplined, manage your bankroll, and always question the consensus.