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New report suggests MGM could bid for People Inc instead, after Diller rescinds offer

By jili tutorial · September 27, 2026

The Plot Twist in the MGM-People Inc Saga: From Takeover Target to Potential Bidder?

Introduction: A Week of Whiplash in the Casino and Media Worlds

In a dramatic reversal of fortune, the same week that Barry Diller’s People Inc formally withdrew its $18 billion offer to acquire the 73% of MGM Resorts it didn’t already own, reports emerged that MGM might be considering a bid for People Inc instead. The Wall Street Journal first reported the potential pivot late Thursday, citing sources close to the matter. This development has reshuffled expectations across both the gaming and publishing sectors, leaving investors and analysts scrambling to interpret the implications.

While the rescinded offer and the rumored counter-move have been favorable for People Inc—whose shares rose 10% on the week—MGM’s stock fell nearly 15% over the same period. The story isn’t just about money; it’s about strategic positioning, the shifting balance between tangible assets and digital economies, and the curious dance between two conglomerates with very different portfolios.

This deeper guide unpacks the background, the mechanics of the failed deal, the market’s reaction, what MGM might see in a publishing company, and what experts think comes next.

Background: Who Are the Key Players?

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts is one of the world’s leading casino and entertainment companies. It owns and operates iconic properties on the Las Vegas Strip, including the Bellagio, ARIA, and MGM Grand, along with regional casinos and digital gaming ventures (like BetMGM, a sports betting and online gaming joint venture). Its business model relies heavily on physical assets—hotels, convention space, and gambling floors—and increasingly on technology-driven customer engagement.

People Inc (formerly IAC/InterActiveCorp)

People Inc is a media and internet conglomerate that owns well-known publishing brands such as People magazine, Food & Wine, Real Simple, and Better Homes & Gardens. It also holds stakes in various digital platforms. In recent years, the company has repositioned itself as a “value operating company,” focusing on businesses where it can apply operational discipline. Barry Diller, a legendary media executive, serves as its chairman and largest shareholder.

Barry Diller’s History with MGM

Diller began investing in MGM in 2020, building a 27% stake over time. That stake was widely seen as a strategic prelude to a full takeover. Diller’s interest in MGM was not about casinos per se, but about acquiring tangible, irreplaceable assets—land, buildings, licenses—in an era where most new wealth is digital and intangible. For a media mogul whose empire depends on advertising and content, physical properties offer stability and diversification.

The Rescinded Offer: What Happened and Why?

The $18 Billion Proposal

People Inc’s offer was to buy the 73% of MGM that it didn’t already own, valuing MGM at roughly $24.7 billion (based on the 73% minority being worth $18 billion). The deal would have made MGM a wholly owned subsidiary of People Inc, effectively merging a casino giant with a publishing house.

Diller’s Explanation: “Ingredients Not Coming Together”

In a formal statement, Diller confirmed the end of the takeover talks, saying the “ingredients” of the deal were not “coming together in the way we had hoped.” This vague phrase left room for interpretation, but analysts quickly pointed to two likely culprits:

  1. Borrowing costs: Interest rates have remained elevated, making the financing of a massive leveraged acquisition much more expensive than when Diller first started accumulating shares in 2020.
  2. Regulatory hurdles: Gaming licenses are highly scrutinized by state regulators. A media conglomerate with diverse holdings might face prolonged review processes, especially in states like Nevada and New Jersey, where background checks are rigorous.

Diller added that he had “total confidence” in MGM’s management and that People Inc remained “open to and interested in the possibility of a strategic transaction with MGM Resorts.” This leaves the door open for a future deal, though likely on different terms.

Why the Timetable Matters

The withdrawal came just days before a planned shareholder vote or regulatory filing—timing that suggests the parties were close but ultimately couldn’t bridge the gap on price or structure. It’s also worth noting that MGM’s stock had been sliding for weeks, making the implied offer less attractive to People Inc’s own shareholders.

The Market Reaction: A Tale of Two Stocks

People Inc’s Rise

The resurfacing of a potential MGM bid for People Inc—combined with the collapse of Diller’s own takeover—was read positively by the market. People Inc shares jumped 10% for the week. Why?

MGM’s Decline

MGM shares fell nearly 15% in the same stretch, continuing a broader slide that saw the stock lose a quarter of its value over the last month alone. The decline reflects:

Interestingly, MGM’s current market price (around $32.50) is far below the implied value in Diller’s offer, suggesting the market doesn’t expect another bid at a similar premium soon.

Strategic Implications: What Would MGM Want with People Inc?

The “Tangible vs. Intangible” Tension

Diller had coveted MGM’s real estate and gaming licenses as a hedge against AI-driven disruption to his media holdings. If MGM were to bid for People Inc, the reasoning is less obvious—but not without logic.

Potential Synergies (and Lack Thereof)

At first glance, casinos and lifestyle magazines don’t overlap much. However, consider:

Yet, the reverse is equally true: MGM’s core operation—casino gaming—has little to do with editorial journalism. The strategic value might simply be diversification. In the same way that Diller wanted protection from AI’s impact on media, MGM might want protection from gaming cycle volatility or regulatory tightening.

The Valuation Angle

Per the WSJ report, Diller’s 27% stake in MGM is believed to carry roughly the same value as People Inc’s entire market capitalization of $3 billion. That means MGM could theoretically acquire all of People Inc by swapping its own stock—which Diller would likely accept, as he already holds a big chunk of MGM. A stock-for-stock deal would avoid hefty cash outlays and maintain Diller’s interest in both companies.

Analyst Perspectives: Why the Bulls Remain Confident

Despite the stock slide, most sell-side analysts maintain a positive outlook on MGM.

Macquarie: “A Striking Discount”

Chad Beynon of Macquarie noted that MGM’s implied enterprise value of about $5.9 billion (based on the failed offer) represented “a striking discount” to its asset base and future cash flows. In other words, the market was pricing MGM as if its properties were shrinking, not growing.

Truist: Buy Rating at $55

Barry Jonas of Truist kept a “Buy” rating with a price target of $55—about 70% above the current price of $32.50. His thesis: MGM’s digital investments (BetMGM) and its fortress balance sheet will eventually re-rate higher as interest rates stabilize.

Consensus View

The general consensus is that the collapsed deal was a symptom of financing and regulatory friction, not a failure of MGM’s operating business. MGM’s Chairman Paul Salem stated that the company had a “clear path to increasing shareholder value” through existing strategies, pointing to share buybacks, debt reduction, and growth in online gaming.

What Happens Next? Scenarios and Watchpoints

Scenario 1: MGM makes a formal bid for People Inc

If MGM proceeds, it would likely be structured as a stock-for-stock merger. Diller has said People Inc remains open to a “strategic transaction” with MGM, so a deal isn’t impossible. But any offer would need approval from both boards and gaming regulators—a process that could take a year or more.

Scenario 2: The status quo persists

People Inc might continue as an independent publisher, while MGM focuses on its own growth. Diller could gradually liquidate his MGM stake, and the two firms go their separate ways. This is the less dramatic but arguably more likely path.

Scenario 3: A third party enters

The news of a possible MGM bid brings other suitors into the mix. Private equity firms that specialize in media (e.g., Apollo, which has casino interests) could circle People Inc. Or another casino operator might see value in MGM’s properties.

Key Watchpoints for Investors:

Conclusion: A Fascinating Role Reversal

The saga between Barry Diller’s People Inc and MGM Resorts is far from over. What began as a potential takeover of a casino operator by a media magnate has morphed into whispers of a reverse acquisition. The financial mechanics—and the personalities involved—make this one of the most intriguing cross-sector stories in recent memory.

For now, the market has spoken: People Inc is up, MGM is down. But analysts caution against overreacting. MGM’s underlying business remains strong, and Diller’s “total confidence” in MGM suggests he sees value there too. Whether MGM ultimately decides to buy People magazine is almost beside the point—the very possibility highlights how blurred the lines have become between entertainment, gaming, and media in the age of digital disruption.