Media, Sports Partnerships Make Prediction Market Regulation Harder, Says Think Tank

By jili tutorial · September 2, 2026

Media and Sports Partnerships Make Prediction Market Regulation Harder, Says Think Tank

Prediction markets are becoming more embedded in everyday life, and that trend is making it increasingly difficult for regulators to step in. According to the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive think tank and vocal critic of all-or-nothing prediction exchanges, the deeper these platforms sink into American society, the weaker the political will to regulate them becomes.

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Why Regulation Gets Tougher as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

In a new multi-part series, the Roosevelt Institute explores how prediction markets are weaving themselves into three key pillars of U.S. daily life: financial services, media, and professional sports. The institute applies path dependence theory to explain the growing challenge.

At first glance, the partnerships that prediction market operators are forging with major companies and leagues may seem harmless. But according to path dependence, these early decisions can have outsized future consequences and become harder to reverse over time.

“The costs of switching to a different path—some alternative way of doing things—become greater the further down the path you go, as the increasing returns of that path begin to self-reinforce,” the Institute notes.
“A positive feedback loop emerges, gradually entrenching decisions that were made early on in the history of an institution or development. Large-scale changes, in turn, become harder to implement.”

In simpler terms: the more prediction markets become part of the cultural and economic landscape, the harder it becomes for policymakers, institutions, and regulators to change direction.

The Prediction Market “Gold Rush” in Finance and Media

As the industry expands rapidly, prediction market operators are forming high-profile partnerships with mainstream media outlets and making inroads into traditional financial services.

The Roosevelt Institute analyzed the largest companies in the S&P 500’s communication services and financial services sectors. Among the communication services giants, five already have prediction market partnerships. That group includes Meta Platforms (parent of Facebook), which is rumored to be developing its own yes/no exchange.

In financial services, only Morgan Stanley—via an investment in a prediction market operator—has officially entered the space among the top 20 firms. However, many other financial institutions are exploring entry, and numerous companies outside the top 20 are already active.

The institute warns that media’s embrace of prediction markets is normalizing these platforms. Unless regulators act, financial services firms will likely continue to increase their involvement.

“In the absence of policy action, this trend is likely to continue, and as more and more firms expand into the prediction markets space, it makes the largest companies’ entrance easier, lending the whole enterprise an air of unearned inevitability,” the Institute adds.

Sports Leagues: A Key Gateway

The connection between prediction markets and sports is well established. By some estimates, sports-related derivatives—including parlays—account for 80% of turnover on the largest U.S. prediction market.

The Roosevelt Institute notes that Major League Baseball (MLB), Major League Soccer (MLS), and the NHL have all signed agreements with at least one prediction market operator. The NBA and NFL have so far remained cautious, but the fact that prominent leagues and teams are embracing sponsorships from these platforms is helping legitimize the industry and cement its place in everyday sports conversation.

“Because these are ongoing arrangements that include features like regular meetings and continuous information-sharing, rather than one-off deals, they establish durable relationships that will only become harder to unwind as more leagues follow,” the Institute explains.

Is It Already Too Late?

With prediction markets converging on finance, media, and sports, path dependence may already be in full effect. That could make any future course correction extremely difficult.

“Once path dependence meaningfully takes hold, course correction will hinge on the rare moments when circumstances and political will converge,” concludes the Institute.
“By then, how many more millions of dollars will retail traders have lost to sophisticated market makers? How many more insiders will benefit from trading on apparent insider information?”

This article originally appeared on Casino.org.