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Major Upset at the Travers: Leading Change Shakes Up the 3-Year-Old Horse of the Year Race

By jili tutorial · September 2, 2026

Major Upset at the Travers: Leading Change Shakes Up the 3-Year-Old Horse of the Year Race

A Stunning Victory at Saratoga

In 2016, the lightly raced Arrogate demolished the Travers Stakes field by 13½ lengths, setting a track record for the classic 10-furlong distance. That performance launched him toward a thrilling win over California Chrome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. On Saturday, another rapidly developing colt—with even less seasoning—pulled off a similar shock at historic Saratoga Race Course.

Leading Change, sent off at 11/1, stormed to victory in the Midsummer Derby in just his third career start. Under jockey Manny Franco, the bay colt used a left-handed whip to sprint past front-running Napoleon Solo and hold off the Preakness winner by half a length. The son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner also defeated Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and multiple stakes winners—all in his third race.

Like Arrogate, Leading Change rewarded long-shot bettors, returning $22.76 for a $2 win wager.

Leading Change’s Rapid Rise

From Bone Bruise to Perfect Record

Trainer Brad Cox, who previously won the Travers in 2021 with Essential Quality, originally planned to debut Leading Change last fall at Keeneland as a 2-year-old. A minor bone bruise forced a scratch and delayed his development. Now unbeaten in three starts, he broke his maiden in June with a 6½-length win at Churchill Downs around one turn, then followed with a narrow victory in July’s Indiana Derby—proving to Cox and owner Wathnan Racing that he could handle two turns.

Cox and Wathnan’s U.S. racing manager, Case Clay, were so confident they chose Leading Change over Commandment, another Cox trainee who finished second in the Jim Dandy. “We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad’s confidence translated to my confidence,” Clay said.

A Trainer’s Confidence in His Colt

At Saturday’s press conference, Cox praised the colt’s intelligence and unflappable demeanor in training, comparing him to his sister Shedaresthedevil, a multiple stakes winner who captured the 2020 Kentucky Oaks. Owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, Wathnan Racing is one of the world’s most prominent stables.

Clay recalled a conversation with Cox at last year’s Keeneland September Yearling Sale, when the trainer pointedly told him, “This is the type of horse you want.” Wathnan had purchased the yearling for $800,000 a year earlier.

Englishman Steals the Spotlight on the Undercard

A Blistering Performance in the Jerkens

Trainer Cherie DeVaux fared better in the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes on the Travers undercard, where Englishman demolished the field. With jockey Jose Ortiz aboard, Englishman bolted to a two-length lead after a quarter-mile, then completed the next two quarters in under 23 seconds each, running six furlongs in a scintillating 1:08.4. Under a hand ride, he crossed the wire in 1:20.71, just three-tenths off the track record.

Only three horses in Jerkens history have finished seven furlongs in under 1:21. Englishman earned a Beyer speed figure of 117 for his effort—compared to Leading Change’s 103 in the Travers. After earning a 115 Beyer in June’s Woody Stephens Stakes, Englishman now holds two of the three highest Beyer figures this year on U.S. soil.

“It was another electrifying performance,” DeVaux said Sunday. “He’s an exciting horse. I would be hard pressed to have another horse like him in my barn, ever.” She noted she will likely train Englishman up to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Golden Tempo’s Traffic Troubles

The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, Golden Tempo, faced traffic issues down the stretch when Napoleon Solo cut off the rail. His third-place finish ended a two-race win streak. The 2/1 Travers favorite is being pointed to the Breeders’ Cup Classic by DeVaux.

“He exited the race in good order. We’ll just keep marching on to the Breeders’ Cup,” she said Sunday. “He ran a better race than he’s been running. Golden Tempo is a horse that needs things to go his way, and unfortunately got stuck on the inside and got stopped a few times in his run.”

Breeders’ Cup Futures Shaken

New Favorites Emerge

Hours after the Travers, Sovereignty closed as the 3/1 favorite in Pool #1 of the Breeders’ Cup Classic futures. The Whitney winner missed last year’s Classic with a fever. He ranks ahead of defending champion Forever Young (9/2) and Golden Tempo (8/1). Despite the defeat, Golden Tempo’s odds actually improved from 12/1.

Leading Change’s Uncertain Path

Leading Change is listed at 18/1, a fair price considering Cox has not indicated if he will run in the Classic. Next year, Churchill Downs Inc. and the New York Racing Association will launch the Thoroughbred Championship Series (TCS), a six-race event offering a $5 million bonus pool. The TCS will conclude with a championship race for 3-year-olds, likely before the Breeders’ Cup—an ideal target for an inexperienced horse like Leading Change.

Cox remains cautious: “He’s a Grade I winner, and I’m going to enjoy this victory. But listen, at some point, there’s zero doubt that down the line, he has the potential to be one of the top horses in the country.”

For now, Cox is unsure whether Leading Change can take on older stars like Forever Young and Sovereignty. That could change as the colt gains seasoning.