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Macquarie Predicts Prediction Market Taker Volume to Hit $187 Billion by 2026

By jili tutorial · October 13, 2026

Macquarie Predicts Prediction Market Taker Volume to Hit $187 Billion by 2026

H2: Understanding Prediction Market Taker Volume Prediction markets, often referred to as “event derivatives,” allow participants to speculate on the outcomes of real-world events. Recent data from Macquarie suggests that the volume generated by “takers”—retail bettors and traders who absorb liquidity—could reach an astounding $187 billion by 2026. This volume represents a significant increase from last year’s $22 billion, showcasing an 8.5x growth trajectory. This surge is fueled by expanding consumer awareness, regulatory advancements, and innovations in platforms offering these services.

H3: Breakdown of Macquarie’s Forecast Previously, Macquarie had estimated taker volume at $190 billion before revising it to $187 billion due to minor fluctuations in market dynamics. Despite this slight adjustment, the updated forecast remains substantially higher than initial predictions of $169 billion, indicating sustained optimism about the industry’s future.

H2: What Defines Takers and Makers in Prediction Markets Understanding the terms “takers” and “makers” is crucial for grasping how prediction markets function:

H3: DraftKings and FanDuel Carving Out Share According to Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), are steadily gaining traction in the prediction market arena. In September, a single dominant operator held 63% of sports event contract volume, while DraftKings and FanDuel accounted for approximately 4% and 3%, respectively. These percentages are particularly notable given the constraints imposed by state-level regulations, which limit their ability to offer sports derivatives where online sports wagering is permitted. Beynon emphasizes that their true potential lies in jurisdictions where online sports betting remains illegal, where their market presence is nearly double the reported figures.

H3: App Downloads Suggest Future Growth Mobile application download data underscores the growing influence of DraftKings and FanDuel. During Week Four of the NFL season, DraftKings secured 11% of prediction market app downloads, while FanDuel captured 7%. This trend indicates that both platforms remain “under-monetized” in the prediction market category, with ample room to expand their market share as geographic restrictions diminish and consumer awareness improves.

H2: Sports vs. Non-Sports Prediction Markets Sports event contracts dominated September’s prediction market activity, accounting for 79% of total volume. This surge was primarily driven by the kickoff of college football and NFL seasons, highlighting the sector’s reliance on major sporting events. However, political events are emerging as a significant contributor to trading activity. With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on the horizon, analysts predict a substantial uptick in political-event trading, diversifying the prediction market landscape.

H3: Total Industry Volume Reflects Broader Growth Beynon notes that total industry prediction market volume hit $20.1 billion in September, marking a staggering year-over-year increase of 1,079%. This growth underscores advancements in liquidity, market breadth, and consumer engagement across various prediction market categories.

H2: The Future of Prediction Markets As prediction markets evolve, several factors will shape their trajectory:

H2: Final Outlook Macquarie’s revised forecast paints a robust outlook for prediction markets, emphasizing the pivotal roles of DraftKings, FanDuel, and emerging operators. While sports will remain central to volume growth, political and other non-sports categories are poised to contribute significantly. Investors, bettors, and industry stakeholders should keep a close eye on regulatory developments and technological advancements to capitalize on these opportunities.