Macquarie Is Bullish on Gambling Stocks and Prediction Markets Growth

By jili tutorial · October 9, 2026

Macquarie’s Optimistic Outlook on Gaming Stocks & Prediction Markets Growth

Banking Giant Sees Value Despite Sector Downturn

Macquarie Group, Australia’s leading investment bank, maintains a constructive view on gaming equities as companies prepare to announce Q3 2023 results. This bullish stance comes despite the sector experiencing a 12% share price decline over the past month. In an October 7 research note, Macquarie analysts highlighted promising fundamentals for US online betting and iGaming operators.

Q3 Performance Expectations & Market Dynamics

The bank’s gaming sector preview suggests operators are positioned for growth despite recent volatility:

July boost: Sports betting activity surged 18% month-over-month, fueled by the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers
August correction: Wagers declined by 1% as the football excitement subsided
September rebound: Early NFL season action sparked renewed engagement

Key metrics Macquarie is monitoring:

Operator margins in newly legalized states
Customer acquisition costs relative to lifetime value
Impact of macroeconomic pressures on discretionary spending

Analyst Team’s Strategic Perspective

The research team—Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee, and Sam Ghafir—anticipate management commentary will reflect:

✔️ Cautious optimism about near-term growth
✔️ Positive outlook on regulatory developments
✔️ Continued investment in product innovation

Their confidence stems partially from insights gained at the recent Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas, where industry leaders demonstrated resilience through:

Advanced risk management tools
Localized market strategies
Responsible gambling initiatives

Top Stock Picks Amid Market Realignment

Macquarie identified three preferred online gaming equities while adjusting price targets downward to reflect broader market conditions:

Company	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Rationale
Flutter	$150	$128	-15%	EU market softness
DraftKings	$38	$34	-11%	Customer acquisition costs
Genius Sports	Maintained	-	-	Data leadership
Sportradar	Maintained	-	-	Tech advantage

Price target changes reflect macro concerns rather than fundamental weakness

Prediction Markets: The $1.5 Trillion Opportunity

Beyond traditional gaming, Macquarie’s July analysis highlighted prediction markets as a high-growth segment:

Current trajectory: Could reach $1.5 trillion in annual volume by 2030
September highlights:
- $19 billion in taker volume (1% YoY growth)
- $802 million single-day record (NFL opening Sunday)

Market share leaders:

Kalshi (projected 70% September volume)
Polymarket
PredictIt

Growth drivers:

Mainstream sports event calendars
Improved regulatory clarity
Mobile platform adoption
Novel contract types (e.g., political outcomes)

The Sports Betting Catalyst

The analysts noted an interesting pattern in prediction market activity:

➔ $4.3 billion volume during NFL’s “Week 0” (no games played)
➔ 85% increase in political betting ahead of 2024 elections
➔ 22% quarter-over-quarter growth in non-sports contracts

This suggests prediction markets are evolving beyond pure sports speculation into broader event forecasting.

Industry Recognition at G2E

The Global Gaming Expo showcased sector professionalism through events like the G2E Dealer Championship, won by Mohegan Sun’s Emely Pascual-Alvarez. Such initiatives highlight the gaming industry’s commitment to:

Employee skill development
Customer experience enhancement
Operational excellence standards

Long-Term Investment Thesis

Macquarie’s analyses collectively suggest:

Short-term volatility presents buying opportunities
Structural growth drivers remain intact
Prediction markets could become a major asset class
US market still in expansion phase (only 30 states legalized sports betting)

Investors should monitor upcoming earnings calls for confirmation of these trends, particularly regarding consumer spending patterns during inflationary periods.

For deeper analysis on prediction markets, see our previous coverage of Macquarie’s July report [link to prior article].