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Macquarie Forecasts Prediction Market ‘Taker’ Volume Reaching $190 Billion in 2026

By jili tutorial · September 19, 2026

Macquarie Forecasts Prediction Market ‘Taker’ Volume Reaching $190 Billion in 2026

Introduction: A New Betting Boom

Prediction markets—platforms where users wager on the outcome of future events—are experiencing explosive growth. A new report from financial research firm Macquarie projects that the total volume generated by so-called “taker” participants in U.S. prediction markets will hit $190 billion in 2026. This figure far exceeds the firm’s earlier estimate of $169 billion, signaling a rapid acceleration in adoption. The forecast underscores how prediction markets are increasingly blending with traditional sports betting, driven by new products, major sporting events, and a surge in retail participation.

Understanding Prediction Market Terminology: Makers vs. Takers

To grasp the significance of Macquarie’s forecast, it helps to understand the roles of two key types of participants in prediction markets.

Macquarie’s $190 billion projection focuses exclusively on taker volume, meaning the total value of orders that are immediately executed against existing liquidity. This is a key metric because it reflects the behavior of the broader retail audience that drives most prediction market activity.

Macquarie’s 2026 Forecast: A Dramatic Surge

In their latest analysis, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon revised the firm’s estimate upward by more than $20 billion. The new figure of $190 billion in U.S. prediction market taker volume for 2026 represents an eightfold increase from the $22 billion recorded in the previous year. (The article references “last year” as the baseline, which in context appears to be 2025 relative to the 2026 forecast year.)

Beynon attributed the revision to several factors, including the launch of customizable same-game parlays (SGPs) and a broader convergence between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. “Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” he noted.

What’s Driving the Growth?

Early September Surge and NFL Kickoff

Even before the 2026 NFL season began, prediction markets posted strong numbers. In the first week of September, taker volume reached $4.3 billion, extending momentum that had built during the World Cup. Once the NFL season started, the effect became even more pronounced: on Week 1 of the NFL campaign, taker volume hit a daily record.

This pattern suggests that major sporting events serve as powerful catalysts, drawing in large numbers of retail takers who bet on game outcomes, player props, and other sports-related contracts.

The Role of Same-Game Parlays (SGPs)

One of the key innovations driving growth is the customizable same-game parlay. These allow bettors to combine multiple outcomes within a single game (e.g., a specific player to score a touchdown and the over on total points). SGPs have become extremely popular in traditional sportsbooks and are now being offered by prediction market platforms. By mirroring sportsbook products, prediction markets attract users who might otherwise use regulated sportsbooks.

Non-Sports Categories Gaining Share

While Macquarie expects sports event contracts to drive approximately 80% of taker volume in 2026, the firm sees significant long-term potential in other areas. Analysts predict that categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment will gradually gain share. For example, prediction markets already host contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, election outcomes, cryptocurrency price movements, and box office results. As these markets mature, they could diversify the user base and reduce dependence on sports events.

Non-Sports Categories: A Long-Term Opportunity

Beynon explicitly noted that “we expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time.” This aligns with the broader trend of prediction markets moving beyond sports and into every domain where binary outcomes can be defined. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others already see active trading on topics ranging from U.S. election winners to the timing of AI regulation.

However, sports remain the dominant driver in the near term, thanks to the sheer volume of events and the familiarity of betting on games. The shift toward non-sports will likely require greater regulatory clarity and the development of liquid markets for niche topics.

The Regulatory Elephant in the Room

Despite the explosive growth, prediction markets face a major headwind: regulation. Beynon acknowledged that “we continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets.” Recent legal battles have not gone in favor of the industry. Prediction market operators have suffered a string of losses in federal appellate courts, particularly concerning whether sports event contracts fall under state gambling laws or federal commodities rules.

The Supreme Court as the Next Battleground

Given these setbacks, many prediction market companies are now angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court. They hope the high court will rule in their favor, allowing them to continue offering sports event contracts without being subject to state gambling regulations. Some legal experts and investment analysts believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case within the next six to seven months.

A favorable ruling could remove a major obstacle and unlock even faster growth. Conversely, an adverse outcome could sharply curtail the availability of sports contracts, directly impacting the volume projections Macquarie has laid out.

Outlook and Risks: Balancing Growth and Uncertainty

Macquarie’s $190 billion estimate is predicated on the continuation of current trends: strong user adoption, product innovation (SGPs), and a supportive (or at least not overly restrictive) regulatory environment. However, the report also highlights the precarious nature of the industry. As Beynon put it, “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

For now, the data points are encouraging. The early September surge, record NFL volumes, and the success of same-game parlays all suggest that prediction markets are capturing a significant share of the retail betting audience. Whether they can sustain that momentum while navigating the courts will be the defining question for 2026 and beyond.

Conclusion

Macquarie’s upward revision of prediction market taker volume to $190 billion in 2026 reflects a rapid convergence with traditional sports betting, fueled by innovative products and event-driven spikes. Yet the industry remains at the mercy of regulators and the judiciary. If the Supreme Court eventually sides with prediction markets, the $190 billion figure could prove conservative. If not, the sector may face a sharp correction. Either way, the next 12–18 months will be pivotal in determining whether prediction markets become a mainstream fixture of the betting landscape or remain a niche corner of finance.