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Kalshi’s Random Bonus Promotions Persist Despite CFTC Warnings on Chance-Based Rewards

By jili tutorial · October 8, 2026

Kalshi’s Random Bonus Promotions Persist Despite CFTC Warnings on Chance-Based Rewards

Introduction: A Clash Between Regulation and Promotion

In August 2023, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a staff advisory warning prediction markets against offering chance-based rewards. Despite this, Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, continued to promote random bonus codes offering payouts of up to $2,000. This activity raises questions about compliance with regulatory guidelines and the ethical implications of such promotions. This article delves into the details of the CFTC’s advisory, Kalshi’s ongoing promotions, and the broader context of prediction market advertising.

The CFTC’s August Advisory: A Clear Warning Against Chance-Based Rewards

On August 12, 2023, the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight released a staff advisory addressing incentive programs in prediction markets. The advisory emphasized that rewards “based in whole or in part on pure chance” could violate core principles governing exchanges. Specifically, the CFTC warned against promotions resembling sweepstakes or games of chance, such as spin-the-wheel mechanisms. Additionally, the advisory cautioned against rewards designed to “guarantee profits or offset losses.”

Key Points from the Advisory:

Despite this, Kalshi’s random bonus promotions continued well into October, highlighting a potential disconnect between regulatory guidance and industry practices.

Kalshi’s Random Bonus Codes: A Persistent Strategy

The Promotions in Detail:

In early October 2023, Kalshi actively promoted at least four random bonus codes:

Notably, none of these promotions disclosed the odds of landing each bonus tier, leaving users uncertain about their potential rewards.

Compliance Questions:

Kalshi filed two CFTC submissions in September 2023—one on September 15 and another on September 25—under the title “Deposit and Trading Reward Incentive Program.” However, it remains unclear whether these filings addressed the $2,000 random bonuses promoted in October.

CBS’s Dual Role: Sponsor and Promoter

Kalshi’s promotional strategy involves partnerships with major media outlets, creating a dual role for companies like CBS:

CBS News Sponsorship:

On September 30, 2023, CBS News announced Kalshi as its prediction market sponsor for midterm election coverage. Kalshi’s market data was integrated into CBS News’ polling and political analysis, providing insights into how traders were predicting election outcomes.

CBS Sports Promotions:

Simultaneously, CBS Sports published numerous articles promoting Kalshi’s CBSSPORTS55 code, which offers a $55 guaranteed bonus—a departure from the random rewards offered by other codes. These articles were often tied to NFL and college football games, attracting a sports-oriented audience.

Ethical Concerns:

This dual role raises ethical questions about transparency and potential conflicts of interest. While CBS News discloses its sponsorship, CBS Sports articles promoting Kalshi codes do not mention the CBS News-Kalshi partnership.

Industry-Wide Scrutiny: A Broader Context

Kalshi is not alone in facing scrutiny over its promotional practices. Other companies, such as DraftKings, have been accused of using AI to target promotions at customers likely to incur losses. This broader trend highlights the need for clearer regulatory frameworks and greater accountability in the prediction market industry.

Kalshi’s Recent Changes: Terminating One Program While Continuing Others

Volume Incentive Program Termination:

On September 28, 2023, Kalshi filed to terminate its Volume Incentive Program, which rewarded traders based on their trading volume. This decision followed reports of a $5 billion run of near-identical trades on Kalshi’s platform.

Sign-Up Bonuses Continue:

Despite this termination, Kalshi’s random sign-up bonuses remained active, suggesting a selective approach to compliance with the CFTC’s advisory.

Conclusion: Balancing Innovation and Regulation

Kalshi’s persistence in promoting random bonuses despite CFTC warnings underscores the challenges of regulating emerging financial platforms. While innovation drives the growth of prediction markets, it must be balanced with consumer protection and regulatory compliance. As the industry evolves, clearer guidelines and stricter enforcement may be necessary to ensure fair and transparent practices.

FAQs

What is the CFTC’s stance on chance-based rewards?

The CFTC’s August 2023 advisory warns against rewards based on pure chance, such as sweepstakes or spin-the-wheel promotions, as they may violate core principles governing exchanges.

Are Kalshi’s random bonuses compliant with CFTC guidelines?

Kalshi continued to promote random bonuses after the CFTC’s advisory, raising questions about compliance. The company’s September filings to the CFTC have not been publicly clarified.

How is CBS involved with Kalshi?

CBS News sponsors Kalshi’s prediction market data for midterm election coverage, while CBS Sports promotes Kalshi’s sign-up bonuses through affiliate links.

What are the ethical concerns with CBS’s dual role?

The lack of disclosure in CBS Sports articles about the CBS News-Kalshi sponsorship raises concerns about transparency and potential conflicts of interest.