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Genius Sports Launches Prediction.com: A Comprehensive Guide to the New Aggregator for Event Contracts

By jili tutorial · September 18, 2026

Genius Sports Launches Prediction.com: A Comprehensive Guide to the New Aggregator for Event Contracts

Introduction: Why a Comparison Layer for Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets have exploded from a niche financial instrument into a multi-billion-dollar category. Monthly notional transaction volumes surged from $32 million in January 2024 to $12.6 billion in January 2026, according to the SOFTSWISS 2026 industry report. Yet, until now, consumers had no single destination to discover contracts or compare prices across different platforms. Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) stepped into that gap on 17 September 2026 by launching Prediction.com – a consumer platform that aggregates event contracts and live market probabilities from multiple prediction market venues.

This guide explains what Prediction.com offers, how it works, the technology behind it, the regulatory environment it operates in, and what the launch means for the broader prediction market ecosystem.

The Growth of Prediction Markets: From Niche to Trillion-Dollar Potential

Explosive Volume Growth

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events – from sports games to political elections to economic indicators. The category has seen extraordinary growth:

Equity research firm Bernstein forecasts that annual volume could reach ≈$240 billion in 2026 (370% above 2025) and potentially $1 trillion by 2030. While these are projections rather than recorded figures, they underline the market’s trajectory.

The Fragmentation Problem

Despite this growth, the consumer experience remained scattered. Traders had to hop between platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others to find the best prices for equivalent contracts. No established “comparison layer” existed to show, for example, how a contract predicting “Team A wins Super Bowl LXI” was priced on one venue versus another. This lack of transparency hindered efficient trading and discovery.

What Prediction.com Offers: A Unified Comparison Layer

Prediction.com aggregates pricing from major prediction market platforms into a single destination. Key features include:

Example Use Case

Imagine you want to wager on “Player X scores over 2.5 touchdowns in the next NFL Sunday.” On Prediction.com, you could:

  1. Search for that specific contract.
  2. See its price on Polymarket, Kalshi, and other supported platforms.
  3. View historical probability trends and live updates as the game progresses.

This eliminates the need to manually check each platform and provides a richer context for decision‑making.

Built on the Legend Acquisition: The Technology Behind Prediction.com

The $1.2 Billion Deal

Prediction.com launches through Legend, the digital sports and gaming media network that Genius Sports acquired in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion. The deal, announced 5 February 2026, comprised:

Genius Sports confirmed the acquisition’s completion on 1 May 2026.

Leveraging Existing Infrastructure

Prediction.com builds on Legend’s existing consumer and comparison technology – the same infrastructure that powers Legend’s portfolio of sports brands. In 2025, Legend’s network reached 320 million annual visits from 118 million unique users. This gives Prediction.com a ready‑made audience and proven scaling capabilities.

Strategic Partnerships Ahead of Launch

In early August 2026, Genius Sports announced partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi covering content, integrity services, and marketing. These moves pre‑positioned the company for its consumer‑facing launch, ensuring access to the largest prediction market platforms.

How the Platform Works: A Technical Overview

Data Aggregation and Pricing Engine

Prediction.com continuously pulls pricing data from partner prediction markets using APIs. Its proprietary pricing engine can handle:

The engine normalises contract terms across platforms, accounting for differences in fee structures, settlement rules, and liquidity.

Live Sports Data Integration

For sports markets, Prediction.com taps into Genius Sports’ official data feeds – the same live data that powers broadcasters and sportsbooks worldwide. This allows the platform to display:

A user watching an NFL game on TV could simultaneously see the prediction market react to a touchdown or injury, all on Prediction.com.

Regulatory Backdrop: Navigating a Contested European Landscape

Joint Declaration by Nine European Countries

The launch comes against a contested European regulatory picture. In June 2026, nine countries – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland – signed a joint declaration agreeing to act together against prediction market platforms that operate without a local licence.

Licensing Requirements

Several of these countries already require a local gambling licence for prediction markets:

CountryStatus
ItalyLicence required
FranceLicence required
BelgiumLicence required
GermanyLicence required
PolandLicence required

This means that platforms not complying with national licensing regimes face enforcement actions, including potential blocking or fines.

Genius Sports’ Strategic Position

In a note published on 14 September 2026 (two days before the launch), Genius Sports co‑founder and CEO Mark Locke explained why the company expects to benefit regardless of how regulation settles:

“Prediction markets will remain a meaningful part of US sports trading, but I do not expect today’s structure to survive unchanged. Some current advantages will disappear, and today’s winners may not be tomorrow’s.”

By operating as a comparison layer rather than a market itself, Prediction.com can remain platform‑agnostic. It does not take positions or create contracts – it merely aggregates and displays information. This neutrality may help it navigate shifting regulatory environments across jurisdictions.

Future Outlook: Expansion and Evolution

Genius Sports has positioned Prediction.com as a consumer discovery and comparison layer, and the company says the platform will expand its coverage, functionality, and partner integrations over time as the global prediction market ecosystem develops.

Expected developments include:

With the backing of a publicly traded company that reported $195.5 million in Q2 2026 revenue (up 64.7% year‑on‑year) and a full‑year 2026 revenue outlook of $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion, Prediction.com has the resources to become the de facto dashboard for prediction market participants.

About Genius Sports

Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) is a sports data and technology company that captures, processes, and distributes real‑time data from live sporting events. It operates as the official data partner to leagues including the NFL and the English Premier League. Its platform is used in more than 150 countries, and it partners with over 1,000 sports organisations worldwide. The acquisition of Legend and the launch of Prediction.com mark a strategic expansion from B2B data provider to B2C aggregation platform.

Conclusion: A New Standard for Prediction Market Access

Prediction.com fills a clear gap in a rapidly growing but fragmented market. By providing a single destination to compare event contracts, track live probabilities, and leverage official sports data, Genius Sports is building the infrastructure for the next phase of prediction market adoption. The platform’s success will depend on regulatory developments, user adoption, and continued partnerships – but its launch marks a significant milestone for the industry.