Gambling Stories to Watch This Week: Ninth Circuit Fallout, Football Season and Responsible Gaming Education Month

Gambling Stories to Watch This Week: Ninth Circuit Fallout, Football Season and Responsible Gaming Education Month

Prediction Markets: Ninth Circuit Ruling Takes Center Stage

Prediction markets have reached their first federal appellate split, raising the stakes for Kalshi, state regulators, and a potential Supreme Court showdown. The Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi will have consequences far beyond Nevada this week, as litigants are already citing the decision in other prediction market cases. Meanwhile, New Jersey faces a September 3 deadline to petition the Supreme Court for review.

Ninth Circuit Decision Spreads to Other Cases

The immediate question after Friday’s ruling is how widely states and other litigants will apply it in prediction market cases across the country. That process has already started. Officials in Rhode Island and Illinois have cited the Ninth Circuit decision as supplemental authority.

The ruling holds even greater weight within the Ninth Circuit itself. An appeal involving Arizona, Kalshi, and the CFTC was stayed pending the Nevada decision. Additionally, Washington and Crypto.com agreed earlier this month to pause their case until the Nevada dispute was resolved.

The ruling may also strengthen arguments from tribal nations. In rejecting Kalshi’s interpretation of federal law, the Ninth Circuit emphasized the longstanding role of both states and tribes in regulating gambling and cited the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

The decision also puts the CFTC in the spotlight. The agency supported Kalshi as an amicus, but the court rejected part of the CFTC’s interpretation of Rule 40.11—even as the regulator is already working to amend that rule.

What to watch: Additional supplemental-authority filings, especially in cases involving states and tribes, and whether the ruling influences the CFTC’s ongoing rewrite of Rule 40.11.

New Jersey Faces Supreme Court Deadline

The Ninth Circuit decision has created a clear split between federal appeals courts. Earlier this year, the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi in its New Jersey case. The Ninth Circuit has now gone the other way, backing Nevada’s authority over Kalshi’s sports contracts.

Timing is critical. New Jersey has until September 3 to ask the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit ruling, and the split between circuits could make that request more compelling. That doesn’t guarantee the Supreme Court will take the case immediately, however. Other appeals are still pending and could further shape the legal landscape before the justices step in.

What to watch: Whether New Jersey files its petition by September 3 and how heavily it relies on the Ninth Circuit’s competing interpretation.

New York Remand Decision and Connecticut Filing Could Come This Week

New York’s effort to return its enforcement case against Kalshi to state court could produce a ruling as early as this week. Connecticut may follow a similar path. Kalshi removed the state’s new enforcement lawsuit to federal court last week, and Connecticut could respond with its own motion to remand.

What to watch: A potential ruling on New York’s remand request and whether Connecticut moves to send its case back to state court.

Sports Partnerships Continue Despite Litigation

Legal pressure hasn’t stopped prediction market operators from expanding commercially. Kalshi followed the Ninth Circuit ruling with another high-profile sports partnership, becoming the US Open’s exclusive prediction-market partner. This deal follows Kalshi’s announcement of partnerships with five MLB teams last week.

The timing highlights the competing forces surrounding the sector: state regulators continue to challenge sports event contracts in court, while leagues, teams, and sporting events increasingly treat prediction market companies as mainstream commercial partners.

What to watch: Additional sports partnerships, particularly in states without legal sports betting or where prediction market litigation remains active.

Sports Betting: Football Season Moves Into Full Swing

First Full College Football Weekend Arrives

This week marks the first major college football weekend of the season, with most of the country’s biggest programs playing their first game. For sportsbooks, this weekend signals the real beginning of one of the busiest periods on the betting calendar. It offers the first meaningful look at customer activity and promotional spending during football season. It also comes as prediction market operators increasingly compete for football customers, particularly in states without traditional legal sports betting.

What to watch: Early betting activity, operator promotions, and prediction market trading volume as the two product types compete for football customers.

DraftKings Launches Gameday Push

DraftKings is marking the start of football season with its September 2 “DraftKings Gameday” campaign. The promotion includes offers across Sportsbook, Predictions, and Casino, alongside free gas in Los Angeles, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, and Detroit. DraftKings said the campaign will kick off its “first football season with DraftKings Sports & Casino available nationwide.”

That wording could confuse some consumers into thinking its sportsbook and casino products are available everywhere, despite a footnote clarifying that nationwide availability includes Sportsbook, Predictions, and/or free-to-play sports contests, depending on the state.

What to watch: How heavily DraftKings promotes Predictions alongside its sportsbook, particularly in large non-sports-betting states such as California.

Responsible Gaming Education Month Begins

September marks the American Gaming Association’s 28th year of Responsible Gaming Education Month. The initiative will likely bring a wave of campaigns and announcements from operators, regulators, and industry groups.

Hard Rock International and Seminole Gaming have already announced an expansion of their PlayersEdge initiatives, including a new campaign to educate customers about randomness in gambling. DraftKings and FanDuel have participated in AGA responsible gaming initiatives in previous years. With both operators having since left the association, it’s worth watching whether they launch separate campaigns this September.

What to watch: New responsible gambling tools, research partnerships, and education campaigns from operators and industry stakeholders.

Sweepstakes Casinos Remain Under Pressure

Sweepstakes casino exits slowed in August following widespread restrictions during June and July, but pressure on the sector remains. Operator shutdowns became a bigger story in August.

Meanwhile, Florida opened another potential enforcement front through Attorney General James Uthmeier’s action involving Stake.us, VGW, and payment processors. Oklahoma is also approaching its November 1 sweepstakes casino restrictions, so some operators might choose to restrict the state as early as September.

What to watch: Additional state exits or operator shutdowns, developments in Florida’s enforcement action, and any responses from affected companies.