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Europe’s Illegal Online Gambling Market Surges to €12 Billion, Study Reveals

By jili tutorial · September 17, 2026

Europe’s Illegal Online Gambling Market Surges to €12 Billion, Study Reveals

Overview: A Rapidly Expanding Underground Economy

Europe’s unlicensed online gambling sector has grown at an alarming pace, reaching €12 billion in net revenue in 2025—a threefold increase from the 2019 total. This means that illegal gambling now accounts for 25% of all online gambling activity across the continent. The findings come from a comprehensive study commissioned by the European Gaming and Amusement Federation (EUROMAT) and conducted by Regulus Partners and Helios, a digital research consultancy specializing in gambling web traffic. The results were announced on 8 September 2026, and are expected to shape policy debates for years to come.

Scope and Methodology of the Study

The research analyzed 28 European online gambling markets. These include the 27 EU member states excluding Malta and Luxembourg, with the addition of the United Kingdom, Serbia, and Montenegro. The study represents over 1,000 person-hours of analysis, combining digital marketing data, web traffic patterns, macroeconomic indicators, and country-specific regulatory interventions. By cross-referencing these data streams, the researchers were able to map not only the size of the black market but also the structural factors driving its growth.

Why Malta and Luxembourg Were Excluded

Both Malta and Luxembourg host large numbers of licensed online gambling operators, complicating the distinction between legal and illegal activity within their borders. Excluding them helps avoid double-counting and ensures a clearer picture of true unlicensed markets.

Key Findings: A Black Market Worth a Quarter of All Online Gambling

The €12 billion figure is more than just a statistic—it signals a systemic failure in regulation. The illegal market has grown large enough to rival the licensed sector in several countries. According to EUROMAT, unlicensed operators are not fringe players; many have built recognizable brands with substantial market share, often using sophisticated marketing campaigns that mimic legitimate operators.

To put the scale in context: if this were a single company, its annual revenue would place it among Europe’s top 50 gambling firms. The study estimates that the total European online gambling market (legal and illegal combined) is worth roughly €48 billion in net revenue, meaning one euro in every four spent on online gambling goes to an unlicensed site.

Regulatory Failures as the Primary Driver

Filip Jelavić, owner and project lead at Helios, stated unequivocally that the expansion of the illegal market is largely a consequence of domestic policy choices, not simply the actions of criminal operators.

“Online gambling black markets don’t happen by accident. They are the result of government policies that create consumer friction.”

He identified several specific policy drivers:

Limited Choice Due to Regulation and State Monopolies

In countries where only a handful of licensed operators exist—or where state-run monopolies restrict competition—players naturally seek alternatives. For example, Sweden’s state monopoly Svenska Spel has historically limited consumer options, pushing some players toward unlicensed international sites. Similarly, Germany’s strict licensing regime under the State Treaty on Gambling (GlüNeuRStV) imposes deposit limits and maximum stakes, which many players view as overly restrictive.

Poor marketing, complex application processes, and unclear regulatory frameworks make it difficult for consumers to identify legal gambling sites. In some jurisdictions, licensed operators are prohibited from advertising widely, leaving the field open to unlicensed competitors who run aggressive ad campaigns on social media, search engines, and streaming platforms.

Distortions of Price or Value

Licensed operators face higher taxes, duties, and compliance costs, which often translate into less favorable odds, lower bonuses, and slower payouts. In contrast, illegal operators avoid these overheads and can offer better returns, bigger bonuses, and faster withdrawals—a powerful lure for price-sensitive players.

Interventionist Measures: Affordability Checks

Measures like the UK’s financial risk checks—introduced to assess whether players can afford their losses—have become a major point of friction. While intended to protect vulnerable gamblers, these checks inconvenience habitual players, who may then migrate to unregulated sites where no such verification exists. Jelavić noted that such policies “block or inconvenience established consumer behaviour,” driving demand for the black market.

The Pivotal Role of Cryptocurrency and Affiliate Marketing

Cryptocurrency: A Regulatory Workaround and Product Differentiator

The study identifies cryptocurrency as central to the growth of illegal gambling. Traffic analysis shows that crypto has been critical in building many of these businesses—both as a product differentiator (offering anonymous, fast transactions) and as a regulatory workaround. Since very few European jurisdictions have established a clear legal framework for gambling with cryptocurrency, consumers who prefer using Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins often have no legal outlet.

Jelavić explained that this gap creates “a ‘push’ from crypto consumers as well as a ‘pull’ from crypto ecosystems avoiding scrutiny.” For instance, unlicensed crypto casinos like those operating under Curaçao or Kahnawake licenses (which are not recognized in Europe) openly accept crypto deposits without KYC checks, making them attractive to privacy-conscious users.

Affiliate Marketing: A Cost-Effective Player Recruitment Engine

For the long tail of smaller illegal sites, affiliate businesses offer a highly effective way to recruit players. Affiliate networks—including casino comparison websites, review portals, social media influencers, and even mainstream advertising networks—earn commissions for directing traffic to unlicensed operators. These relationships are difficult to enforce against, even where laws explicitly prohibit promoting unlicensed gambling. Affiliates often operate across multiple jurisdictions, use shell companies, or hide behind pseudonymous online personas, making legal action slow and costly.

Example: A popular affiliate site might feature a “Top 10 Online Casinos” list that includes both licensed and unlicensed options, with the unlicensed sites paying higher commissions. The site hides its true relationship through complex payment chains, and regulators struggle to keep up.

Implications for Policy and Law Enforcement

EUROMAT President Jason Frost stated that the study “will form the backbone of our engagement programme with policy makers and law enforcement agencies across member states.”

Frost highlighted alarming connections between illegal gambling and serious crime. According to insights from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) , organized crime groups treat illegal gambling as a source of ready liquidity for drug trafficking, human trafficking, and firearms smuggling. Profits from unlicensed casinos can be laundered quickly, with minimal oversight.

Unfair Competitive Advantages

Unlicensed operators avoid duties and taxes, carry lower overheads, and can therefore advertise better returns than licensed businesses. This creates an uneven playing field, where law-abiding operators struggle to compete. Additionally, the absence of self-exclusion schemes such as Gamban (a widely used blocking software) on illegal sites leaves vulnerable players exposed to addiction and financial harm.

Enforcement Challenges

The study notes that even where laws against illegal gambling are strong, enforcement is often weak due to the cross-border nature of the internet, the use of cryptocurrencies, and the proliferation of affiliate marketing. A single unlicensed operator may be headquartered in one country, registered in another, and serve players in a third—making it difficult for any single national authority to act.

Conclusion: Urgent Need for Harmonized European Action

The EUROMAT study makes clear that piecemeal national regulation is failing to contain the black market. As the illegal sector tripled in six years, policymakers must address the root causes: restrictive licensing, affordability checks that drive consumers away, and the lack of a unified approach to cryptocurrency gambling.

EUROMAT intends to use this data to push for:

Without swift and coordinated action, the black market will continue to drain tax revenue, empower organized crime, and endanger consumers across Europe.