EU iGaming Weekly Deep Dive: Brazil’s Crackdown, VNLOK vs. Meta, Norway’s Poker Proposal & More

EU iGaming Weekly Deep Dive: Brazil’s Crackdown, VNLOK vs. Meta, Norway’s Poker Proposal & More

The European iGaming landscape continues to shift rapidly, with regulators and operators grappling with new rules, market disruptions, and legal challenges. This week saw landmark developments: Brazil’s abrupt ban on fixed-odds betting and online casino games, a Dutch trade association suing Meta over illegal gambling ads, Norway’s proposal to legalise online poker under a monopoly, and new tax regimes taking effect in Malta. Meanwhile, the SBC Summit Lisbon provided a platform for industry leaders to debate the fallout. Below, we break down each major story with context, implications, and what comes next.

1. Brazil Shuts Down Fixed-Odds Betting and Online Casino Games

What happened?
On 25 September, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure No. 1.394, banning all fixed-odds betting in Brazil – including sports betting and online casino games. The measure took immediate effect: new deposits were halted the same day. Players have until 23:59 on 5 October to withdraw their balances, and all licensed sites must go offline by 6 October. Operators’ licences expire 30 days after publication, and the R$30 million licence fees will not be refunded.

Context and background
Brazil had been moving toward a regulated online gambling market since 2018, when Law 13.756/2018 legalised sports betting. However, implementation stalled repeatedly. In 2023, the government began issuing temporary licences for fixed-odds betting, including sports and casino games, with a full regulatory framework expected by 2025. The sudden ban reverses years of progress, catching operators and investors off guard.

The provisional measure must be approved by Congress within 120 days or it lapses. Given the political climate – with presidential elections approaching (first round on 4 October) – the fate of the ban remains uncertain. Some analysts believe Congress may reject or amend it, while others see a complete shutdown as a real possibility.

Impact on operators

• Entain had previously projected that Brazil would contribute about 5% of its group’s online net gaming revenue (NGR) in FY26. Following the ban, Entain revised its EBITDA guidance, expecting to land toward the lower end of its £910 million to £960 million range.
• Allwyn, which owns 36.75% of Betano operator Kaizen Gaming, noted that Brazil is Betano’s largest market. The loss of this revenue stream will significantly affect Allwyn’s results.
• Betano, Sportingbet, and other major brands face immediate disruption. Many had already invested heavily in marketing and infrastructure.

Black market surge
According to Bet Legal, a monitoring panel run by Iron Security, unauthorised betting domains jumped from 377 on the day of the ban to 981 by 28 September – a 160% increase in just three days. This highlights the classic pattern: when legal channels are removed, players migrate to unregulated sites, often with fewer consumer protections.

What to watch

• Players have until 5 October to withdraw funds. Operators will transfer remaining balances to banks on 7–8 October, and banks will return them to players between 9 and 14 October.
• The first round of Brazil’s presidential election on 4 October could influence congressional action.
• Entain’s Q3 trading statement on 15 October will provide further clarity.

2. SBC Summit Lisbon: Brazil, Black Markets, and Prediction Markets under the Spotlight

Event overview
The SBC Summit Lisbon took place from 29 September to 1 October, drawing executives from Flutter, Allwyn, Betsson, Sportradar, DraftKings, and many others. The conference served as a barometer for the industry’s mood amid regulatory headwinds.

Day one – Brazil’s ban dominates
Executives from Flutter, Allwyn, and Betsson openly criticised Brazil’s abrupt ban, calling it a setback for market integrity. Michael Jordan (the basketball legend, not the academic) joined Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl and DraftKings CEO Jason Robins on stage for a panel on data and innovation – a rare crossover moment that generated significant buzz.

Day two – Why the black market persists
A key theme was the failure of enforcement and taxation. Speakers argued that high taxes, weak enforcement, and the prevalence of unlicensed offers keep players with illegal operators. An advertising panel explored the consumer dilemma: no operator wants to be the first to scale back marketing, even when spending is unsustainable, because market share is at stake.

Day three – Prediction markets: betting or trading?
The final day focused on prediction markets, a rapidly growing segment. Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner Andrew Lyman argued that prediction market customers are traders, not bettors, and therefore should not fall under gambling regulation. However, Malta Gaming Authority (MGA) CEO Charles Mizzi countered that these markets are essentially betting on outcomes and should be regulated as such. The debate reflects a broader tension as regulators struggle to classify new financial-style products.

Long-term significance
SBC also signed an agreement to keep the event in Lisbon until 2030, cementing the city as a hub for iGaming conferences. This gives Portugal – itself a regulated market – a stronger voice in European gambling policy discussions.

3. VNLOK Sues Meta over Illegal Gambling Adverts on Facebook and Instagram

Legal action
On 28 September, VNLOK – the Dutch trade association for licensed online gambling operators – summoned Meta to the Amsterdam District Court. The lawsuit alleges that Meta fails to meet obligations under the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) and demands the court order Meta to do more to prevent illegal gambling adverts on Facebook and Instagram.

The scale of the problem
VNLOK’s research claims that more than 90% of the gambling adverts it examined on Facebook originated from unlicensed, illegal operators. Moreover, Meta removed only 11% of illegal adverts in May and 15% in June – far below what VNLOK considers acceptable. Licensed operators in the Netherlands are subject to strict advertising rules, including a ban on untargeted ads and limits on frequency. Illegal operators face no such restrictions, giving them an unfair advantage.

Political momentum
On 29 September, the Dutch House of Representatives adopted a motion asking the government to amend the Betting and Gaming Act. Under the proposed change, a platform that repeatedly shows an illegal gambling advert after a removal request would commit an offence, and the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) could impose fines. The motion is non-binding, but it signals strong parliamentary support for tougher enforcement.

Broader implications

• This case is a test of the DSA’s effectiveness in policing illegal content. If the court rules against Meta, it could set a precedent for other EU member states.
• Similar battles are being fought in Germany, the UK, and Australia, where regulators are pressuring tech platforms to block illegal gambling ads.
• For VNLOK, the lawsuit is also a way to protect licensed operators who pay taxes and follow rules, while illegal competitors evade oversight.

What to watch

• The court hearing date has not yet been set.
• The government’s response to the parliamentary motion will be closely watched.

4. Norway Proposes Online Poker via State Monopoly Norsk Tipping

Proposal details
Norway’s Ministry of Culture and Equality has published a consultation proposing that Norsk Tipping – the state-owned gambling monopoly – be allowed to offer online poker. Currently, no operator can legally offer online poker in Norway. The proposal would grant Norsk Tipping an exclusive right, limited to tournament poker and cash games.

Key provisions

• Loss limits: Maximum NOK5,000 per day and NOK10,000 per month. For players under 20, the monthly limit drops to NOK2,000.
• Table restrictions: Players may use no more than four tables simultaneously.
• Marketing ban: The ministry is also asking for feedback on whether online poker marketing should be banned entirely.
• Consultation period: Open until 29 November 2026 – an unusually long window, suggesting the ministry is not in a rush.

Why now?
A 2022 University of Bergen survey found that nearly 90,000 Norwegians play online poker each year with foreign operators. This sizable grey market concerns regulators: players lack consumer protections, and tax revenue leaks out of the country. Offering poker through Norsk Tipping is seen as a way to channel demand into a safe, state-controlled environment.

Comparison with other Nordic countries

• Sweden adopted a licensing model in 2019, allowing multiple private operators.
• Denmark has had a licensing system since 2012.
• Finland is currently debating whether to move from a monopoly (Veikkaus) to a licensing model.
• Norway remains committed to the monopoly approach, limiting competition but also reducing marketing and problem gambling risks.

Potential hurdles

• The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Surveillance Authority may question whether the monopoly violates EEA rules on free movement of services.
• Existing state lottery monopolies have faced legal challenges, and poker is often considered a game of skill, complicating the classification.

5. Malta’s New Gaming Tax and VAT Rules Take Effect

Overview of changes
As of 1 October, Malta’s revised gaming tax and VAT frameworks are in force. The previous flat 5% gaming tax and separate device levy have been replaced by a two‑tier system:

• Type 1 services (casino-type games, lotteries): 15% of aggregate gaming revenue
• Types 2, 3, and 4 (betting with operator-set odds, commission-based games, controlled skill games): 10% of aggregate gaming revenue

These rates apply only to gaming services provided in Malta (i.e., to Maltese residents), not to B2B services or services to customers outside Malta.

VAT exemption narrows
Malta’s VAT exemption for gambling has also been tightened. According to Deloitte Malta, most operators’ supplies – including sports betting and live casino – will now in principle be subject to Malta VAT. This is a significant change: previously, many operators relied on a broad exemption. Now they must assess their VAT obligations carefully, potentially increasing costs for those serving Maltese customers.

Timeline and transition

• September returns remain under the old regime and are due by 20 October.
• The MGA’s updated reporting portal will be ready by 1 November.
• October returns (under the new rules) are due by 20 November.

Impact on Malta’s iGaming hub status
Malta has long been Europe’s premier iGaming licensing jurisdiction. The increase in tax rates (from a flat 5% to 10–15%) and the narrower VAT exemption may make the jurisdiction less attractive for new operators. However, Malta still offers a stable regulatory environment, an established pool of talent, and EU market access. The changes are unlikely to trigger a mass exodus, but they may encourage operators to explore other jurisdictions like Gibraltar, the Isle of Man, or Estonia.

What to watch

• Operators’ compliance costs will rise. Smaller firms may struggle.
• The MGA’s portal update on 1 November will test the system’s readiness.
• The government may face pressure to adjust rates if it sees a drop in licence applications.

What to Watch in the Coming Week

• Brazil: Player withdrawal deadline – 5 October (23:59 BRT). Sites go offline 6 October. Presidential election first round 4 October.
• Entain: Q3 trading statement due 15 October.
• Malta: September tax returns due by 20 October under the old regime.
• Norway: Online poker consultation open until 29 November 2026. No immediate action but industry stakeholders will begin submitting responses.

Summary Table of This Week’s Key Events

Final Classification

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