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Czech Government Moves to Block Kalshi: What It Means for Prediction Markets

By jili tutorial · October 3, 2026

Czech Government Moves to Block Kalshi: What It Means for Prediction Markets

Overview: Kalshi Added to Czech Gambling Blacklist

The Czech Republic is tightening the screws on unlicensed prediction-market operators. On 30 September, the country’s Ministry of Finance added Kalshi, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, to its official list of unauthorised gambling operators.

The move triggers a legal obligation for internet service providers (ISPs): within 15 days of the prohibition order’s publication, they must block access to the affected websites. That means Czech users will lose conventional access to Kalshi on Thursday, 15 October 2026.

Kalshi now joins Polymarket, its main rival, on the Czech blacklist. Polymarket was hit with a similar prohibition order in July, marking what regulators described as a turning point in how event-based trading platforms are treated under Czech law.

How the Czech Prohibition Order Works

A Public List With Real Consequences

The Czech Ministry of Finance maintains a public register of gambling operators that are not authorised to offer services in the country. Once an operator is added to this list, the legal clock starts ticking for ISPs. Under Czech law, they have 15 days from publication to restrict access to the named platforms.

For users, the practical effect is simple: unless they use workarounds such as VPNs or offshore access points, they will no longer be able to reach Kalshi through Czech internet infrastructure. The same kind of blocking order has previously been applied to other unlicensed gambling sites.

Who Brought Kalshi to the Authorities’ Attention?

Kalshi’s activities in the Czech Republic were brought to the attention of regulators by the Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation (IPRH), an industry body that represents more than 90% of the country’s regulated gambling sector.

The IPRH has been vocal in its view that prediction markets operate as betting services in disguise. When Polymarket was added to the blacklist, the IPRH warned that this was an important precedent, not the end of the matter. The addition of Kalshi confirms that warning was not an empty one.

Jan Řehola, Director of the IPRH, put it bluntly:

“When Polymarket was added to the list, we said that it was an important precedent, not the end of the matter. The inclusion of Kalshi shows that this approach is now being reflected in practice.

What matters should not be the name of the product, but its actual substance. If a person puts money at risk on the uncertain outcome of a real-world event, it should not be possible to circumvent the rules simply by calling the bet a contract or a financial instrument.”

Why Do Regulators View Prediction Markets as Gambling?

The Substance Over Labels Argument

At the heart of the Czech position is a simple principle: the regulator should look at what a product actually does, not what it is called. A prediction market invites users to put money at risk on the outcome of an uncertain future event. To Czech authorities, that is the essence of betting, even when the platform calls its products “event contracts” or “financial instruments.”

This view is not unique to the Czech Republic. Several European regulators, including those in Belgium, France, Romania, Spain, and Germany, have taken a similarly hostile stance toward prediction markets that operate without a local gambling licence.

“Investment” or “Bet”?

Prediction-market operators have generally argued that their offerings are closer to financial trading than to gambling. In the United States, Kalshi and Polymarket have sought to position themselves within a regulated financial framework.

Kalshi, in particular, has operated under the oversight of the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates commodity futures and certain types of event contracts at the federal level. In that context, event contracts can be seen as hedges or speculative instruments rather than wagers.

In Europe, however, the legal landscape is very different. Many jurisdictions have rejected that framing outright. They argue that the label “contract” or “financial instrument” does not change the underlying reality: a user is betting money on a future outcome. As long as the operator does not hold the relevant gambling licence, these regulators say, it is operating illegally.

The European Divide: Regulation vs. Blocking

A Patchwork of Approaches

There is currently no single, unified European approach to prediction markets. Instead, operators face a patchwork of national regimes:

Gibraltar’s Pioneering Framework

Gibraltar has emerged as the trailblazer for the third route. It has introduced a dedicated regulatory framework specifically covering prediction markets, becoming the first jurisdiction in the world to do so. Instead of banning the product, Gibraltar chose to license it and bring it under formal supervision.

Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner, Andrew Lyman, has been a strong advocate of this approach:

“If you are in denial and you want to ban or block, then you are fighting against the tide of consumers who really want this product. Therefore it’s much better to regulate…”

That sentiment, however, remains very much the exception across Europe. Most regulators continue to view prediction markets with deep suspicion.

What Does This Mean for Kalshi and the Industry?

Kalshi’s Ambitions in Europe

Despite the regulatory headwinds, Kalshi is not retreating. The company’s Chief Risk Officer, Udesh Jha, appeared at this week’s SBC Summit Lisbon and said that Kalshi “would love to expand in Europe.”

The optimism is easy to understand. Prediction markets have experienced explosive growth in recent years. According to DeFi Rate, Kalshi alone saw trading activity of around $60 billion (£45.3 billion) in a single recent month. The company is reportedly seeking fresh capital at a valuation of approximately $40 billion.

The Industry’s Argument

Prediction-market supporters argue that these platforms serve a useful function. They allow people to gauge the likelihood of real-world events, from election outcomes to interest-rate decisions, by putting money behind their views. In that sense, they resemble futures markets more than casino games.

However, critics such as the IPRH and The European Lotteries counter that responsible gambling rules — including player protection, fair-market supervision, and safeguards against problem gambling — cannot be bypassed simply by using different terminology. The European Lotteries has recently made a similar point, warning that prediction markets are adopting marketing strategies that try to distance themselves from gambling while still behaving like it.

Key Dates at a Glance

EventDate
Kalshi added to Czech unauthorised gambling list30 September
Deadline for ISPs to block Kalshi15 October 2026
Polymarket prohibition order (earlier precedent)July 2026

What Happens Next?

For Czech Users

Once the ISP blocking takes effect, Czech users will lose conventional access to Kalshi. Some may turn to VPNs or other circumvention tools, but the legal status of such workarounds is separate from the question of whether the operator is authorised.

For Prediction-Market Operators

The Kalshi case reinforces the difficult environment that prediction markets face across much of Europe. The main strategic options are:

  1. Seek gambling licences in individual countries where the legal framework allows it.
  2. Push for dedicated regulatory frameworks, as Gibraltar has done.
  3. Operate only in jurisdictions where they can legally position themselves as financial products under relevant securities or derivatives regulation.
  4. Accept that some European markets will be closed, and focus on geographies where the products are clearly lawful.

For the Regulated Gambling Sector

The IPRH has made it clear that it sees prediction markets as direct competitors offering an unlicensed alternative to regulated betting. With both Polymarket and Kalshi now blocked, the Czech gambling industry has won two significant battles.

Whether it sees itself as “in denial” about consumer demand is another matter. SBC News has reached out to the IPRH for a comment on that exact point.

Bottom Line

The Czech Republic’s decision to block Kalshi is a powerful signal that European regulators are not willing to let prediction markets evade gambling laws through clever framing. Kalshi may be a major player with billions of dollars in trading volume and ambitious expansion plans, but in Europe, the debate is no longer about whether prediction markets look like gambling. For many regulators, the answer is already clear: if consumers are risking money on uncertain events, the substance is gambling, whatever the label says.

The coming years will determine whether other European countries follow the Czech Republic’s lead, or whether Gibraltar’s regulatory-first approach wins the argument. For now, the momentum clearly favours enforcement over experimentation.