Carolina Panthers Rewarded NFL Bettors the Most Last Year: Should You Bet on Them in 2026?
Carolina Panthers Rewarded NFL Bettors the Most Last Year: Should You Bet on Them in 2026?
When a new NFL season begins, bettors don’t just look at which teams are expected to win — they look at which teams made them money. Last year, no team rewarded bettors more than the Carolina Panthers. A Sports Illustrated study found that the Panthers returned a league-leading 60.48% return on investment (ROI) for anyone who backed them consistently throughout the regular season.
But that’s the past. The big question for bettors now is whether the 2026 Carolina Panthers are worth wagering on again. Can a team that has never recorded back-to-back winning seasons finally break through? Or will the schedule and quarterback uncertainty send the Panthers back to the bottom of the NFC South?
Here’s a deeper look at the data, the storylines, and the betting angles that matter.
How the Panthers Became Betting Gold Last Season
What Did the ROI Study Measure?
The Sports Illustrated study looked at every NFL team from the 2025 season and calculated how much money bettors would have won — or lost — by placing a $100 moneyline bet on that team to win every regular-season game. It wasn’t about covering spreads or hitting totals. It was a simple test: if you bet Carolina’s moneyline every week, how much profit would you have ended up with?
In the Panthers’ case, the answer was $1,028.24. Since that means a $100 stake on each of 17 regular-season games, the total risk was $1,700. The $1,028.24 in profit works out to exactly the 60.48% ROI listed in the study.
That number stood out for a simple reason: the Panthers finished 8-9. They were a losing team by record, but their wins often came at juicy odds because oddsmakers repeatedly made them underdogs. When a team keeps winning as the underdog, the moneyline payouts add up quickly.
The Most Profitable NFL Teams for Bettors in 2025
Here is the full list of the teams that gave bettors the best return last season:
| Rank | Team | Wins | Losses | Ties | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers | 8 | 9 | 0 | $1,028.24 | 60.48% |
| 2 | Patriots | 14 | 3 | 0 | $797.22 | 46.90% |
| 3 | Jaguars | 13 | 4 | 0 | $732.10 | 43.06% |
| 4 | Bears | 11 | 6 | 0 | $659.57 | 38.82% |
| 5 | Steelers | 10 | 7 | 0 | $623.88 | 36.70% |
| 6 | Broncos | 14 | 3 | 0 | $547.89 | 32.23% |
| 7 | Texans | 12 | 5 | 0 | $514.96 | 30.29% |
| 8 | 49ers | 12 | 5 | 0 | $513.54 | 30.21% |
| 9 | Seahawks | 14 | 3 | 0 | $505.46 | 29.73% |
The Panthers weren’t just profitable; they were profitable by a wide margin. The Patriots, who had one of the best regular-season records in the NFL, still trailed Carolina by more than 13 percentage points in ROI.
Why a Losing Team Can Still Be a Bettor’s Best Friend
A team with an 8-9 record can still make money for bettors when the wins come at the right times. The key is value. If a team is expected to lose by a touchdown and wins outright, the moneyline return is enormous. Even a modest underdog win can produce a better return than a heavy favorite covering a spread.
That’s what happened with Carolina. The Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9, but their regular-season wins likely included several upsets. Those wins created the high ROI that put them atop the study’s rankings.
The Panthers in the Playoffs: A Wake-Up Call or a Sign of Progress?
Carolina’s postseason appearance was memorable for fans, even if it didn’t last long. In the Wild Card round, the Panthers pushed the Los Angeles Rams to the brink, ultimately falling 34-31 on a late touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford.
That performance gave Carolina believers something to hold on to. But it also reinforced why the Panthers remain a difficult team to trust.
The Panthers were never supposed to win their division, and they only did so because the NFC South was weak. Their point differential for the season was -69. That means over 17 games, they were outscored by nearly four points per contest. Historically, teams with negative point differentials that won divisions were more lucky than dominant.
Still, the wild-card loss to the Rams was competitive. It showed a level of fight that had been missing for much of the season. The question for 2026 is whether that fight was a one-off or a foundation for something real.
Carolina’s Make-or-Break Storylines This Season
The Franchise’s History of Mediocrity
The Panthers have never recorded back-to-back winning seasons since the franchise debuted in 1995. That is a remarkable spell of inconsistency.
Under owner David Tepper, the struggles have been even more pronounced. Since Tepper bought the team, Carolina is 44-89. Only the New York Jets (39-94) and the New York Giants (41-91-1) have been worse in that span.
So when bettors look at the Panthers, they are not betting on a franchise with a recent history of success. They are betting on a franchise that has been one of the NFL’s worst organizations for a generation. That history matters when evaluating a win total.
Bryce Young’s Contract-Year Push
Bryce Young was drafted No. 1 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and expectations were enormous. So far, he has mostly underwhelmed.
Last season, however, there were signs of progress. Young threw for 3,011 yards and 23 touchdowns, both career highs. He also threw 11 interceptions, another career high in the opposite direction.
The Panthers have exercised Young’s fifth-year option for 2027, which means he is effectively playing for a new multi-year contract extension. This season will go a long way toward determining whether he is the franchise quarterback the Panthers hoped for when they drafted him.
But the scoring numbers tell a different story. With Young starting 16 of 17 games, the Panthers finished 27th in the NFL with just 18.3 points per game. Even with better passing stats, the offense still struggled to put enough points on the board.
Offensive Line Trouble Before Week 1
The Panthers will open the season without both starting tackles. Taylor Moton was diagnosed with a blood clot in his lung, while Ikem Ekwonu is recovering from a ruptured right patellar tendon.
Losing both starting tackles is a major concern, especially for a quarterback who has struggled with consistency and pressure. The offensive line was already a work in progress, and now the team will have to patch holes at the most important positions on the line.
Still, The Athletic’s analytical forecasting model sees Carolina as one of the NFL’s top-three surprise teams this season. That suggests the underlying metrics see more talent than the previous win-loss record would suggest.
The Weapons Around Young
Young will have at least one elite target to lean on. Tetairoa McMillan, the reigning NFC Offensive Rookie of the Year, is a legitimate WR1. In his rookie season, McMillan caught 70 passes for 1,014 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
At running back, Chuba Hubbard suffered a hamstring injury in training camp, but he does not carry an injury designation heading into the Week 1 opener against Chicago. That’s important because Hubbard remains the team’s most reliable rushing threat.
Defensive Upgrades Could Change the Trajectory
The Panthers were not good defensively last year, but there are reasons to think they might be better this season.
Pro Bowl linebacker Devin Lloyd arrived from Jacksonville, giving the defense a young, playmaking presence in the middle of the field. The Panthers also signed Jaelan Phillips, a dynamic pass-rushing specialist who registered five sacks in 17 games for the Eagles and Dolphins last year.
Those additions should help Carolina improve on its -69 point differential from last season. If the defense can keep games closer, Young and the offense may not need to score as much. That could turn close losses into close wins.
The Schedule Is Not Friendly
One of the Toughest Slates in the NFL
Sharp Football Analysis has noted that Carolina has the third-toughest schedule in the league entering the 2026 season. That is not what you want when you are trying to prove you’ve taken a step forward.
The Panthers have three primetime games after having just one over the previous two combined seasons. They will face six teams that made the playoffs last season, including the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
Carolina opens at home against the Chicago Bears, who won the NFC North last year. That’s a difficult matchup right out of the gate. But the real danger comes from the overall schedule density: there are very few obviously easy weeks.
Carolina Panthers 2026 Full Schedule
Here is the complete regular-season schedule:
| Week | Matchup | Time | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bears at Panthers | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 2 | Panthers at Falcons | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 3 | Panthers at Browns | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 4 | Lions at Panthers | 8:20 p.m. | NBC |
| 5 | Bye Week | — | — |
| 6 | Panthers at Eagles | 1 p.m. | CBS |
| 7 | Bucs at Panthers | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 8 | Panthers at Packers | 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video |
| 9 | Broncos at Panthers | 1 p.m. | CBS |
| 10 | Panthers at Saints | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 11 | Ravens at Panthers | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 12 | Panthers at Bucs | 8:15 p.m. | ESPN |
| 13 | Panthers at Vikings | 4:25 p.m. | CBS |
| 14 | Saints at Panthers | 1 p.m. | CBS |
| 15 | Bengals at Panthers | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 16 | Panthers at Steelers | TBD | TBD |
| 17 | Seahawks at Panthers | 1 p.m. | FOX |
| 18 | Falcons at Panthers | TBD | TBD |
When you look at the schedule as a whole, there are a lot of landmines. The Panthers have to face AFC North and NFC North opposition, along with a resurgent NFC South that no longer looks quite as weak as it did a year ago.
The Saints are projected to be much improved. Atlanta is a wild card with upside. And the Bucs are still the betting favorites in the division. That means Carolina’s division games are no longer guaranteed opportunities.
The NFC South Futures Market
The NFL’s weakest division last year is still being treated cautiously by oddsmakers. At DraftKings, the NFC South future odds look like this:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +164
- New Orleans Saints: +255
- Carolina Panthers: +350
- Atlanta Falcons: +400
The Bucs are the favorites, but the Panthers are not far behind. The +350 price suggests the market sees Carolina as a live underdog in the division race. But it also means the market is not fully convinced.
If you believe in Bryce Young and the defensive additions, +350 to win the NFC South might be the most interesting way to bet on Carolina. If you don’t believe in them, the win total might be the better market to attack.
How to Bet the Panthers’ Season Win Total in 2026
The Win Total Market
Heading into the 2026 NFL season, DraftKings set Carolina’s regular-season win total at 7.5. The Over was available at +115 odds, while the Under was listed at -136.
Here’s how that compared with the rest of the NFL:
| Team | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 9.5 | -126 | +120 |
| Bears | 9.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Bengals | 10.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Bills | 10.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Broncos | 9.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Browns | 5.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Buccaneers | 8.5 | +115 | -136 |
| Cardinals | 3.5 | -136 | +115 |
| Chargers | 9.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Chiefs | 10.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Colts | 7.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Commanders | 7.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Cowboys | 9.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Dolphins | 3.5 | -140 | +110 |
| Eagles | 10.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Falcons | 7.5 | +120 | -140 |
| Giants | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Jaguars | 8.5 | -140 | +116 |
| Jets | 5.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Lions | 10.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Packers | 9.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Panthers | 7.5 | +115 | -136 |
| Patriots | 10.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Raiders | 5.5 | -150 | +125 |
| Rams | 11.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Ravens | 11.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Saints | 7.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Seahawks | 10.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Steelers | 8.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Texans | 9.5 | -146 | +124 |
| Titans | 6.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Vikings | 8.5 | -120 | +100 |
Carolina’s win total of 7.5 is exactly in line with the 8-9 record they posted last season. The market is basically saying: “We think the Panthers will be about the same team they were a year ago.”
The Case for Betting the Under
The strongest argument for the Under is simple: Carolina has never shown it can sustain success.
The franchise has never had back-to-back winning seasons. The Tepper era has been defined by losing. The quarterback has not yet proven he can be consistently good enough to carry a team through a difficult schedule. And the schedule is one of the hardest in the league.
Even the offensive line question is troubling. Starting the season without both starting tackles is a huge problem for a quarterback who has already struggled with pressure and consistency. It would not be a surprise to see Young removed as the starter at some point, the same way Andy Dalton replaced him after two games in 2024.
This time, the leash will probably be longer. But the drop-off from Young to backup Kenny Pickett is not massive. That means the offense might not dramatically improve even if a change is made.
The Case for Betting the Over
The Over bettors would point to the progress Young made last season, the presence of Tetairoa McMillan as a true WR1, and the defensive upgrades with Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips.
If Carolina’s defense can turn some shootouts into low-scoring wins, and if Young can avoid the catastrophic games that have haunted him in the past, seven or eight wins is possible. The Athletic’s model even thinks the Panthers could be one of the NFL’s surprise teams.
Also, the NFC South might still be wide open. The Bucs are the favorites, but they are not dominant. If Carolina can split division games and steal a couple of non-conference wins, the Over is within reach.
Final Verdict: Should You Bet the Panthers in 2026?
Last season was a great one for Panthers bettors, but that kind of ROI is almost impossible to repeat. The value that made Carolina a profitable moneyline team is gone now. Oddsmakers will be more cautious about making the Panthers underdogs this time around.
The schedule is brutal. The quarterback remains unreliable. The offensive line is already banged up. And the franchise’s history is working against it.
In the final analysis, the recommended wager is on the Under 7.5 wins for Carolina. Expect Young’s uneven play at quarterback to continue, and expect the Panthers to fall short of the playoff push they made last year.
Pick: Carolina Panthers UNDER 7.5 wins (-136)
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