Brazil Study: Households Lost BRL62.5 Billion to Betting in 2025
Brazil Study: Households Lost BRL62.5 Billion to Betting in 2025
A new study has revealed that Brazilian households lost BRL62.5 billion ($12.5 billion) to betting operators in 2025. During the same period, these companies processed BRL350.97 billion in transactions through Pix, Brazil’s instant payment system. These findings come from the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, prepared by Comsefaz (National Committee of Secretaries of Finance) in partnership with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy.
The figures exceed those previously reported by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), Brazil’s betting regulator. The study drew on data from the Central Bank, the Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity (EPAE), and the authors’ own calculations.
The Scale of Losses: What the Numbers Show
The BRL62.5 billion figure represents the net transaction value—meaning the total amount wagered minus what was returned as winnings. According to the report, this sum is equivalent to approximately 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households. This indicates that the growth of betting operations is now having a measurable impact on household finances across the country.
Discrepancy with Ministry of Finance Estimates
A notable gap emerged between the Comsefaz estimate and the BRL36.9 billion figure reported by the Ministry of Finance. The difference of BRL25.6 billion represents roughly 41% of the total estimated by Comsefaz. Interestingly, this percentage aligns with the lower end of the range projected by a separate study from LCA Consultores.
Illegal Market: Underground Betting Still Dominates
A study by LCA Consultores, a São Paulo-based market intelligence firm commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), estimated that underground betting operations account for between 41% and 51% of the total market. This suggests that despite regulatory efforts, a significant portion of betting activity remains outside legal oversight.
Impact of Regulation on Pix Transactions
According to a report in the Brazilian newspaper Folha, the regulation of betting operators coincided with a structural shift in Pix transfers from individuals to businesses in the arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors. The study analyzed the impact of regulated betting operators on Pix transactions between October 2024 and March 2026.
Methodology: A Statistical Simulation
Researchers estimated the expected volume of Pix transfers from individuals to companies in these sectors, assuming the regulatory change had not occurred. They then compared this projection with actual figures recorded. The difference between the two scenarios was interpreted as the impact attributable to betting operators. However, the authors caution that because this is a statistical simulation, the result does not represent a proven cause-and-effect relationship.
Bolsa Família Ban Shows Lower-Income Participation
The report highlighted that the ban on betting for Bolsa Família beneficiaries led to a clear slowdown in transaction growth, bringing estimated transfer volumes closer to observed levels. According to the study, the fact that the ban had a measurable effect on aggregate transaction volume suggests that lower-income families play a significant role in Brazil’s online sports betting market.