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Brazil’s Crackdown on Betting: President Lula’s Plan, Possible Scenarios, and What Comes Next

By jili tutorial · September 27, 2026

Brazil’s Crackdown on Betting: President Lula’s Plan, Possible Scenarios, and What Comes Next

Overview: A Political Storm Over Gambling Regulation

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has reignited a fierce debate over the country’s regulated betting market. Speaking at a campaign event in Rio de Janeiro this week, Lula launched another attack on the sector, stating, “If we don’t fight this, the algorithms will win.” The president is expected to issue a provisional measure (a temporary decree with immediate legal effect) as early as this Friday, potentially overturning the existing law that allows online betting. The move could lead to a partial or total ban on betting in Brazil, pending approval or rejection by the National Congress.

This article breaks down the situation: why Lula is acting now, what options are on the table, the political and economic pressures at play, and what the future of betting in Brazil might look like.

Background: Brazil’s Regulated Betting Sector Under Fire

Brazil has a relatively recent history with regulated online betting. A 2018 law (Law 13,756/2018) legalised fixed-odds sports betting, and subsequent regulations under the Ministry of Finance began licensing operators. The sector grew rapidly, with football clubs, broadcasters, and international operators heavily involved. However, the market has always faced criticism over problem gambling, money laundering, and insufficient oversight.

Lula’s Growing Opposition

Since returning to office in 2023, President Lula has expressed increasing hostility toward betting. He has criticised the industry for exploiting vulnerable populations and accused football clubs of relying on “money laundering” through sponsorship deals. This week’s remarks are not isolated—they follow his speech at the UN General Assembly, where he also targeted the sector. The timing is significant: Lula is campaigning ahead of the 2026 general election, which gives him greater latitude to make bold statements without the usual constraints faced by ministers still in government.

What Lula Has Said: “Immense Pleasure” in Ending Betting

At the Rio de Janeiro event, Lula made his position unmistakably clear:

“I will have immense pleasure in putting an end to betting.”

He directly addressed football clubs, many of which recently published a manifesto supporting the regulated betting industry. Lula warned them to find alternative financing:

“In the name of good politics, in the name of Brazilian society, we are going to put an end to this and the teams will learn to live without money laundering. … That’s it. It will be like this. And this will be good for the youth.”

Lula framed the issue as a government decision, not a dispute with football. He cited concerns over algorithmic manipulation, addiction, and the diversion of family income into gambling.

The Provisional Measure: How the Ban Could Be Enacted

What Is a Provisional Measure?

Under Brazil’s constitution, the president can issue a Medida Provisória (MP) —a temporary law that takes effect immediately. It has the force of law for 60 days (renewable once) until Congress votes to approve or reject it. If Congress rejects it, the measure lapses and the previous legal regime is restored.

Expected Timeline

According to Minister of Institutional Relations José Guimarães, the provisional measure should be released this week. He stated:

“What will be the extent of the intervention? Medium? Total? It’s in his [Lula’s] hands. … But there’s one thing the president won’t budge from: he’s going to stir up this hornet’s nest.”

Guimarães confirmed that a total ban is among the possibilities, but the final decision rests with Lula.

Three Possible Paths: From Mild Restrictions to Total Prohibition

Lula has not officially announced the specific measures, but he has instructed his team to finalise analyses. Based on leaks and insider reports, three main scenarios are under discussion:

Scenario 1: Expanded Advertising Restrictions (Least Severe)

The mildest option would tighten rules on how betting companies advertise. This could include:

This approach would not directly limit the availability of betting, but it would reduce its visibility and appeal, especially to minors.

Scenario 2: Ban Online Casino, Keep Sports Betting (Moderate)

A middle-ground proposal would prohibit online casino verticals (slots, table games, live dealer) while allowing sports betting to continue, albeit with stricter advertising limits. This would preserve the part of the market that is directly linked to football and other sports, which many clubs rely on for sponsorship revenue.

Scenario 3: Total Ban on All Betting (Most Radical)

The most aggressive option—and the one Lula appears to favour—would be an outright ban on all forms of online betting in Brazil. This would effectively revoke the 2018 law and shut down regulated operators. The economic team, however, strongly opposes this path due to fiscal and legal risks.

Fiscal Impact

Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has warned that a total ban could lead to:

Minister of Finance Dario Durigan was present at the Wednesday meeting with Lula, along with other key officials: Chief of Staff Mirian Belchior, Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti, Justice Minister Wellington César, and Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo. The economic team is conducting surveys to quantify the fiscal impact of each scenario.

Justice Minister Wellington César and ministry officials are closely monitoring the legal challenges expected if a total ban is imposed. Key legal questions include:

There is no consensus within the government. The economic team fears that a rushed ban could be struck down by the Supreme Court, creating legal chaos and undermining the government’s credibility.

Political Context: Election Campaign vs. Governance

Lula’s Unlimited Speeches

As a candidate for the 2026 election, Lula can make sweeping promises without being bound by the usual restrictions on government officials. Ministers, by contrast, must be more restrained. This has allowed Lula to escalate his rhetoric against betting without immediate policy consequences—until now.

Football Clubs’ Opposition

Last week, several top Brazilian football clubs published a manifesto endorsing the regulated betting sector. Clubs like Flamengo, Corinthians, and Palmeiras have lucrative sponsorship deals with betting companies. Lula dismissed this opposition, saying clubs must “learn to live without money laundering,” implying that their funding sources are illegitimate.

The UN Speech and International Attention

Lula’s criticism of betting at the UN General Assembly this week signals that he views the issue as a global public health and social justice concern, not just a domestic regulatory matter. This international platform adds weight to his domestic moves.

What Comes Next: The Week Ahead

Friday’s Provisional Measure

All eyes are on this Friday, when Lula is expected to sign the provisional measure. The exact content will determine immediate reactions:

Congressional Response

Once the MP is published, Congress has up to 120 days to approve or reject it. The ruling coalition’s majority is not guaranteed on this issue, as many deputies receive campaign contributions from betting companies or represent regions where the sector employs many workers. A rejection would be a significant political defeat for Lula.

Market and Industry Reaction

Brazil’s regulated betting market, which includes international giants like Bet365, Sportingbet, and local firms, has already seen share prices fall. Operators may halt new investments and pending license applications until the situation stabilises.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble for Brazil

President Lula is taking a politically risky but personally passionate stance against betting. Whether he succeeds in imposing a total ban or settles for a compromise will reveal the true balance of power between the executive, the economic team, and Congress. The outcome will affect not only millions of Brazilian bettors and the football industry but also the country’s reputation as a regulated gambling jurisdiction.

As Minister José Guimarães put it: “He’s going to stir up this hornet’s nest.” The question is whether the government can control the swarm.