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Brazil Gambling Ban Could Cost Billions in Lost Tax Revenue, Study Warns

By jili tutorial · October 8, 2026

Brazil Gambling Ban Could Cost Billions in Lost Tax Revenue, Study Warns

Introduction

A proposed ban on regulated gambling in Brazil has sparked significant debate, with a new economic study warning that the move could cost the government up to R$73 billion ($14.7 billion) in lost tax revenue over the next four years. The study, conducted by LCA Consultores on behalf of the Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), highlights the far-reaching economic implications of the ban, including job losses and potential legal challenges.

The Context of the Ban

Provisional Measure No. 1,394

In September 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure No. 1,394 into law, imposing a comprehensive ban on sports betting and online casino gaming. The measure took immediate effect but requires congressional approval to remain in force. This move comes amid ongoing debates about the social and economic impacts of gambling in Brazil.

Political Implications

The timing of the ban coincides with Brazil’s presidential election, where President Lula faced defeat in the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro. With Bolsonaro currently favored to win the upcoming runoff election, critics of the gambling ban hope for a potential reversal of the measure. Prediction markets currently give Bolsonaro an 84% chance of victory.

Economic Impact

Tax Revenue Losses

The LCA Consultores study estimates that banning regulated gambling could result in tax revenue losses of R$58 billion ($11.6 billion) to R$73 billion ($14.7 billion) over four years. This projection assumes that 80% to 100% of players currently using regulated platforms will migrate to offshore, unregulated operators, depriving the government of much-needed tax income.

Job Losses

The gambling sector directly employs approximately 10,000 people in Brazil, with an additional 5,500 jobs indirectly linked to the industry. These jobs contribute around R$460 million ($92 million) annually in salaries. A ban would jeopardize these employment opportunities, exacerbating economic challenges in the country.

Operators had previously paid R$30 million ($6 million) for five-year federal licenses before the ban was introduced. If all 85 licensees seek compensation, the government could face legal liabilities of up to R$2.55 billion ($512 million).

Impact on Brazilian Soccer

Sponsorship Revenue at Risk

Brazilian soccer has developed a close relationship with the gambling industry in recent years. During 2025, gambling companies spent over R$1.1 billion ($221 million) on sponsorships of teams in Brazil’s Série A football league. The ban includes sponsorships and advertising, posing a significant financial threat to clubs reliant on this revenue.

Limited Concessions

The government has made a minor concession by allowing manufacturers and retailers to continue selling existing soccer shirts featuring betting brands. However, new shirts or sponsorship agreements are prohibited. Congressional amendments propose allowing existing sponsorships to continue until the end of the season or for up to 24 months.

Industry Reactions

Licensed Betting Sites Shut Down

Following the ban, licensed betting sites were required to go offline from October 6, 2026. The government confirmed that previously authorized platforms complied with the shutdown directive.

Calls for Legislative Reforms

Trade bodies like the IBJR are advocating for legislative amendments to mitigate the economic fallout. Proposed changes include allowing continued sponsorships and reducing the scope of the ban to focus solely on unregulated operators.

Conclusion

The proposed gambling ban in Brazil carries significant economic consequences, from lost tax revenue and job losses to potential legal liabilities. With congressional approval pending and a potential shift in political leadership, the future of regulated gambling in Brazil remains uncertain. Stakeholders across industries are calling for a balanced approach that addresses social concerns without stifling economic growth.