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Betfred Founder Warns: Doubling Machine Gaming Duty Could Shut Down UK Betting Shops by 2030

By jili tutorial · September 23, 2026

Betfred Founder Warns: Doubling Machine Gaming Duty Could Shut Down UK Betting Shops by 2030

Overview: A Stark Warning from the Industry’s Most Prominent Voice

Fred Done, the 83-year-old founder of Betfred and Britain’s highest-paying taxpayer this year, has issued a grave prediction about the future of retail betting in the UK. In an interview with the Financial Times over the weekend, Done warned that further tax increases—specifically a potential doubling of the Machine Gaming Duty (MGD)—could lead to widespread betting shop closures, damage allied industries like horse racing, and accelerate the decline of the high street. With Betfred currently operating roughly 1,094 shops across the UK, the implications of such a move are far-reaching.

This guide unpacks the details of Done’s warning, the mechanics of MGD, the broader industry response, and what the future may hold for retail betting and the communities that depend on it.

Understanding Machine Gaming Duty (MGD)

What Is MGD and How Does It Work?

Machine Gaming Duty is a tax levied on the profits from gambling machines—primarily fixed-odds betting terminals (FOBTs) and other electronic gaming devices found in betting shops, arcades, and bingo halls. The duty is tiered based on the maximum stake allowed:

The proposal reportedly under consideration by Chancellor John Healey ahead of the Autumn Budget would double the rate on FOBTs from 20% to 40% —a move that Done and other industry leaders say would be catastrophic.

Why Is the Government Considering This?

The UK government is under pressure to raise revenue to fund public services, and gambling is seen as a “sin tax” that can be increased without significant political backlash. In addition, there is ongoing scrutiny of gambling-related harm, with some campaigners and MPs arguing that higher taxes would reduce the prevalence of FOBTs and curb problem gambling.

However, Done and his peers contend that such a tax hike would backfire, shrinking the legitimate market and driving activity to unregulated operators.

The Immediate Impact on Betfred and the Wider Industry

Betfred’s Exposure to FOBTs

Despite the 2019 reduction of the maximum FOBT stake from £100 to £2, these machines still account for roughly half of Betfred’s shop profits. In Done’s own words, without these machines, retail betting is “impossible.” The high-margin nature of FOBTs has historically subsidised the cost of running physical shops—covering rent, staff wages, and other overheads.

What a 40% MGD Would Mean for Betfred

According to Done, a hike from 20% to 40% would force Betfred to close 495 of its shops within a year, resulting in:

This is not a hypothetical scenario. Betfred has already closed 132 outlets this year, following a previous rise in the Remote Gaming Duty (RGD). Chief Executive Jo Whittaker explained earlier in 2024:

“We have tried hard to protect all our sites and the colleagues who work in them, but the combined impact of higher employer National Insurance contributions, wage inflation, increases in gambling taxes, and wider economic uncertainty has left us with no choice.”

Other Operators Feeling the Pinch

Betfred is not alone. In April 2024, Evoke (owner of William Hill) closed 200 of its retail stores for the same reasons. Similarly, Stella David, CEO of Entain (parent company of Ladbrokes and Coral), has warned that a 20-percentage-point MGD increase would add £100 million to the company’s annual operational costs.

In a recent letter to the UK Prime Minister, David highlighted the human toll:

“They are people losing their jobs and communities losing long-established high-street businesses.”

The Ripple Effect: Horse Racing, High Streets, and the Black Market

Horse Racing Sponsorships Under Threat

Betfred sponsors Britain’s five classic horse races, including the Epsom Derby. Done revealed that the company has not yet agreed to renew those sponsorships amid the current tax uncertainty. This raises concerns for a sport already struggling with declining attendance and prize money. If Betfred withdraws, finding a replacement sponsor willing to invest in a shrinking retail sector would be difficult.

The High Street: “Dead by 2030”

Done framed the potential closures as part of a broader structural decline in physical retail. He predicted:

“I believe that by 2030 we will have no betting shops. The high street will be dead. We’ve already worked it out that with the increases in taxes and salaries and other wages, it won’t be worth operating.”

This echoes wider trends: UK high streets have lost thousands of bank branches, pubs, and post offices over the past decade. Betting shops have often been a staple anchor, providing footfall and jobs. Their disappearance would leave empty premises in many towns and city centres.

The Black Market Risk

Done also warned that reducing the supply of legal, regulated gambling would push problem gamblers towards the black market—unlicensed online operators that offer no consumer protections and pay no UK taxes. This is a well-documented phenomenon: when Australia imposed strict gambling restrictions, black-market activity surged. The UK Gambling Commission estimates that 200,000 to 300,000 people already gamble via unlicensed operators. A further contraction of the legal retail sector could exacerbate this.

Political Reactions and Pushback

Criticism from the Treasury Select Committee

Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury Select Committee, has dismissed some industry warnings as “scaremongering.” Done strongly refuted this, pointing to the concrete numbers Betfred has calculated for closures and job losses.

Andy Burnham and Planning Restrictions

Recently, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham delivered another blow to the retail sector by insisting he would scrap the “aim to permit” presumption for betting shops, meaning new applications would be treated more like planning permissions for alcohol licences. He also demanded that Adult Gaming Centres (AGCs) require planning permission to operate. This shift adds regulatory uncertainty on top of tax pressures.

Done’s Personal Tax Burden

In response to the government’s mantra that “those with the broadest shoulders should pay more tax,” Done posed a pointed question:

“Well, how broad do my shoulders have to be? We paid £400 million in taxes as a family last year.”

He expressed a personal reluctance to leave the UK, but acknowledged that his children might seek more favourable tax regimes abroad—raising the spectre of a brain drain of wealth and entrepreneurship.

The Human Cost and Future Scenarios

Job Losses and Community Impact

The 2,575 job losses from Betfred alone would be devastating for the workers and their local economies. Many betting shop employees are long-term staff with limited transferable skills in a shrinking retail sector. The closure of 495 shops would also reduce rent income for landlords and further hollow out high streets.

Could Tax Rise Backfire on the Exchequer?

The £67 million in lost tax revenue from Betfred’s closures is a conservative estimate. When combined with similar moves from Evoke, Entain, and other operators, the net fiscal gain from a MGD hike could be negative—especially if black-market activity soaks up demand, generating zero tax revenue.

A Two-Speed Industry: Online Thrives, Retail Dies

Even if retail betting disappears, online gambling will likely continue to grow. However, online platforms employ far fewer people per pound of revenue than physical shops, and they offer less community interaction. The shift could accelerate the decline of local economies, while large digital operators (many based overseas) capture the profits.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for UK Retail Betting

Fred Done’s warning is not an isolated opinion. It is backed by data from his own company, by statements from CEOs of Evoke and Entain, and by observable trends in shop closures and high street decay. The proposal to double Machine Gaming Duty from 20% to 40% represents a potential tipping point that could make retail betting unviable by 2030.

The government faces a choice: raise revenue from gambling in a way that preserves jobs and high streets, or risk killing the legal retail market while problem gamblers migrate to the black market. The Autumn Budget will reveal which path is chosen.

For now, the UK’s 6,000 remaining betting shops—and the tens of thousands of people who work in them—wait for a decision that will determine their future.