As US NFL Sportsbook Growth Stalls, Europe Shows Another Path

By jili tutorial · September 12, 2026

As US NFL Sportsbook Growth Stalls, Europe Shows Another Path: A Comprehensive Guide

Introduction: Two Markets, Diverging Trajectories

The National Football League (NFL) has long been the undisputed king of American sports betting. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports wagering in 2018, the league has fueled an explosion of legal betting across the country. But as the 2026 season approaches, that growth has hit a wall. U.S. sportsbooks are staring at their weakest year-over-year expansion since the modern legal era began, with forecasts ranging from flat handle to a slight decline.

Across the Atlantic, a different story is unfolding. Europe — historically a secondary market for NFL fandom — is emerging as a laboratory for how the league’s betting appeal can develop when the sport is not the dominant cultural force. Operators in the U.K., Ireland, and Germany report rising customer numbers and deepening engagement, especially around games played on European soil. Yet this is not a simple export opportunity for U.S. sportsbooks. Europe presents its own unique challenges, from time-zone hurdles to ticket fatigue, offering a complex but instructive case study for the NFL’s global ambitions.

This guide unpacks the current state of NFL betting in both markets, examines the data behind the trends, and explores what the European experience means for the future of the sport’s wagering ecosystem.

H2: The U.S. Market: Growth on Hold

H3: A Sharp Slowdown After Years of Expansion

When legal sportsbooks first opened their doors in states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, the NFL was the primary engine of growth. Each season brought double-digit percentage increases in handle as new states came online and bettors migrated from illegal markets. But the 2026 season marks a clear departure from that trend.

American Gaming Association (AGA) projects U.S. sportsbooks will take $29.5 billion in NFL wagers, virtually unchanged from the $29.4 billion wagered in the previous season.
H2 Gambling Capital is even more cautious, forecasting $31.4 billion — a decline of 0.8% — despite estimating that underlying demand (excluding market maturation effects) grew by roughly 4%.
Citizens Equity Research offers a brighter view, projecting approximately 5% growth in regulated football wagering. However, their forecast covers all football (including college) and is not directly comparable to the NFL-specific AGA and H2 estimates.

Why the disconnect? The core issue is market saturation. Most large U.S. states have already legalized sports betting. The remaining states (California, Texas, etc.) have not yet moved to join, and legislative progress is slow. Meanwhile, customer acquisition costs have soared, and many early adopters have already established their loyalty to one or two sportsbook apps. The low-hanging fruit has been picked.

H3: What “Flat Growth” Really Means

A flat or slightly declining handle does not necessarily indicate that Americans are losing interest in betting on the NFL. Rather, it signals that the industry has entered a mature phase where growth will come from increased betting frequency and higher average stakes per customer, not from adding new states or millions of new users. For sportsbook operators, this means shifting from aggressive expansion to retention and cross-selling — a very different business model.

H2: Europe’s Emerging Role as a Growth Test

H3: Smaller Scale, Higher Potential

Europe will never rival the United States in raw NFL betting volume. The league is still a niche sport on a continent dominated by soccer, rugby, and motorsport. But the data from established operators suggests that NFL betting has become a meaningful product, particularly in the U.K., Ireland, and Germany.

There is no continent-wide figure for NFL wagers — in part because betting markets in Europe are fragmented across dozens of jurisdictions with different regulatory frameworks. However, operator-level data reveals clear growth and shifting customer behavior that U.S. sportsbooks cannot ignore.

H3: The U.K. and Ireland: A Rising Tier

The longest-established European market for NFL betting is the U.K. and Ireland, where the league has held regular-season games since 2007. Recent operator reports show accelerating engagement:

Flutter (owner of Paddy Power) reported in September 2025 that active NFL customers had increased 30% year-over-year and were four times higher than in 2021.
American football jumped from the 10th most popular betting sport among Paddy Power’s U.K. and Irish customers in 2019 to 3rd place in 2024, behind only soccer and horse racing.
Entain (owner of Ladbrokes and Coral) reported a 65% increase in NFL betting customers during the opening portion of the 2024 season, with total bets up 60% and stakes up 46% compared to the previous year.
Super Bowl LX in February 2025 saw a third consecutive year of increased late-night betting activity, with unique U.K. bet slips placed after midnight up 13% since 2023.

These numbers show that NFL betting is no longer a fringe novelty in the U.K. and Ireland. It has become a core offering that rivals many domestic sports during the season.

H2: Germany: A More Mature and Stable Betting Market

H3: Consistent Positioning Amidst Rising Audiences

Germany offers a contrasting picture. While overall NFL audiences have grown — Super Bowl LX averaged 1.30 million viewers on RTL, and regular-season 19:00 CET slots delivered record free-TV shares for a third straight year — betting engagement has remained remarkably stable.

Tipico, one of Germany’s leading sportsbooks, provided exclusive data to Gambling Insider for this analysis. Key findings:

During the NFL season (September to February), the league has consistently ranked fifth in betting turnover over the past five years.
The Super Bowl stands alone: it is the most-bet event on the day it falls, and American football ranks as the second- or third-largest sport overall on Super Bowl Sunday.
Tipico describes Super Bowl turnover as approximately 10 times that of an NFL playoff game and 30 times that of an average regular-season matchup.
However, average regular-season turnover at Tipico has remained broadly stable over the past five seasons, declining slightly in the most recent year.

The conversion challenge: Rising TV audiences without a corresponding increase in betting turnover suggest that while Germans are more interested in watching the NFL, they are not yet being converted into bettors at the same rate. This is not an interest problem — it is a product and marketing problem.

H3: Betting Behavior Differences: Prematch vs. Live

German customers also wager differently than their American counterparts. At Tipico, the split between prematch and live betting on NFL games is roughly two-to-one in favor of prematch. In the U.S., live betting now accounts for a majority of wagers on many sports. The time difference is a likely culprit: NFL games kick off between 7:00 p.m. and 2:00 a.m. Central European Time, making late-night live betting less convenient. Retail betting is also limited during those hours.

This structural constraint means that any growth in Germany will need to come from improving the mobile live-betting experience or from creating special promotions that align with European time zones.

H2: International Games: The Clearest Betting Spikes

H3: The German Games Multiply in Impact

Tipico’s data shows that games staged in Germany produce unmistakable betting bumps:

The first German regular-season game in 2022 generated approximately 2.5 times the turnover of an average NFL matchup.
That multiplier rose to 3.3 times in 2024 and 3.7 times in 2025.
Despite this, Tipico notes: “The German games are therefore increasingly powerful individual betting events, but have not yet produced a measurable long-term increase in betting activity across the entire NFL season.”

In other words, the international games act as local catalysts, creating a concentrated spike in engagement around a single event, but they have not yet lifted the entire season’s betting baseline.

H3: London and Dublin: Record Volumes

Across the Atlantic, the London and Dublin games have generated similar patterns:

During the 2024 London series, Paddy Power reported a 25% increase in active customers betting on those games year-over-year, with stakes rising 30%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings game in Dublin in September 2025 became Paddy Power’s largest regular-season NFL game ever for both active customers and total betting volume, across the U.K. and Ireland.

These figures highlight why international games are so strategically important for sportsbooks: they localize the NFL experience. A London-dweller who might never bet on a 1:00 a.m. Sunday game will happily place a wager on a live afternoon kickoff in their home city. The games create a “home field” effect for betting.

H3: Operator Responses

Bookmakers have reacted swiftly. Paddy Power became the NFL’s official sportsbook partner in the U.K. and Ireland in 2025. Entain’s bwin brand holds NFL betting partnerships across Germany, Austria, and Spain. These deals provide exclusive content, odds boosts, and marketing rights that help operators capitalize on the local buzz.

H2: Challenges: More Games Do Not Automatically Mean More Growth

H3: Ticket Affordability and Demand Saturation

The NFL is accelerating its international expansion. The 2026 season features a record nine international games, six of which are in Europe. Owners have approved raising the maximum number of league-organized international games from eight to 10 beginning in 2027.

But increasing supply carries risks, especially in the NFL’s longest-established European market: London.

Tickets for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars sold strongly.
However, tickets for Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders remained available two months after going on public sale.
The Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans game at Wembley also had significant availability in early September.

Fans interviewed by the Associated Press cited rising prices and “team fatigue.” One longtime attendee noted that a Wembley seat costing him £66 ($89) in 2016 now costs £146 ($197) in 2026. Adult tickets for some London games reach nearly £300 ($406). For context, Gambling Insider purchased a hospitality ticket for £77 ($104) for a 2024 London game — less than the starting price for some 2026 fixtures.

H3: Competition from Domestic Sports and New Markets

In Europe, the NFL competes for attention and discretionary spending with entrenched domestic sports — especially soccer. Fans who once traveled to London also have increasingly attractive alternatives closer to home as the NFL expands into Germany, Spain, Ireland, and France. The scarcity that once made London games “can’t-miss” events is diminishing.

The NFL insists that the U.K. remains a top international market, noting that more than three million fans have attended regular-season games in London since 2007. But ticket availability does not directly translate into weaker betting activity. Still, it highlights the challenge of maintaining the appeal and urgency of international games as the number of such events multiplies.

H2: The Path Forward: Turning Spikes into Sustained Engagement

H3: Lessons for U.S. Sportsbooks

While U.S. sportsbooks are not currently looking to Europe as a growth market — they are focused on domestic operational efficiency — the European experience offers valuable lessons:

International games drive concentrated betting interest, but they do not automatically lift the season-long baseline. Operators must invest in follow-up campaigns, cross-sells, and year-round NFL content to convert one-off bettors into regulars.
Time-zone differences are a structural barrier in Europe, but they are not insurmountable. Improved mobile interfaces, pre-match betting enhancements, and early-week promotions could address the live-betting gap.
Ticket fatigue is real. As the NFL schedules more European games, the novelty wears off. Sportsbooks cannot rely solely on hype; they need to build betting habits beyond the event itself.

H3: What Europe Reveals About the NFL’s Global Betting Potential

The contrast between the U.S. and Europe is not about one market outperforming the other. It is about two parallel experiments. In the U.S., the question is how to sustain growth in a mature market. In Europe, the question is how far the NFL’s expanding footprint can deepen betting engagement in markets where the sport is still a relative outsider.

The strongest data so far comes from locally staged games. Dublin became Paddy Power’s biggest regular-season NFL betting event. German games have seen their turnover multiplier grow from 2.5x to 3.7x in just four years. These are real, measurable successes.

The next challenge — for both the NFL and sportsbook operators — is to turn those individual spikes into a sustained, year-round betting culture that extends well beyond the international schedule. If they can solve that, Europe could indeed show another path forward for a maturing industry.

As US NFL Sportsbook Growth Stalls, Europe Shows Another Path