Lottomatica vs Flutter: The Battle for Italy’s Online Gambling Crown
Lottomatica vs Flutter: The Battle for Italy’s Online Gambling Crown
Lottomatica remains the leader in Italy’s online gambling market, but a new analysis from investment bank Jefferies warns that its position is under increasing pressure from Flutter, which now combines the Sisal and SNAI brands. According to Jefferies’ latest deep dive, Lottomatica held 30% of Italy’s online gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first quarter, while Flutter’s combined share stood at 27%. That narrow gap means SNAI’s performance under Flutter ownership could be the deciding factor.
Flutter’s prior acquisition in Italy provides a clear template. Since buying Sisal in August 2022, the operator has boosted that brand’s online GGR share from roughly 10% to 13%, with gains of about three percentage points split evenly between online sports betting and iGaming. Meanwhile, SNAI has been heading in the opposite direction. Jefferies calculates that SNAI has lost around four percentage points of online share over recent years. If Flutter can simply recover that lost ground, it could be enough to push the group past Lottomatica.
“Flutter boasts a track record of gaining the leading market share in almost every targeted territory,” Jefferies noted, suggesting that Italy’s market-share evolution will become a key focus for investors over the coming quarters.
Why Italy Matters
The opportunity in Italy is significant because the market combines enormous scale with a long runway for online growth. Jefferies estimates that Italy’s total gambling GGR will reach €22.6 billion in 2025, making it Europe’s largest market. Yet online penetration sits at just 28%, compared with 61% in the UK. The bank forecasts that Italian online GGR will grow at a compound annual rate of 9% between 2025 and 2030.
Moreover, Italy’s advertising restrictions favour established omnichannel operators with strong brands and retail networks. The new concession regime has also reduced the number of online licences from 81 to 52, potentially accelerating the shift toward the largest operators.
The Flutter Playbook
Flutter’s Q2 earnings call last week offered the first significant evidence that its SNAI strategy may be gaining traction. CEO Peter Jackson said Italy continued to deliver “exceptional levels of growth” across both sportsbook and iGaming, with Flutter’s revenue performance outpacing the wider market. This came despite some self-inflicted disruption.
Flutter completed the migration of SNAI onto its platform in April, which Jackson described as causing a “brief period of share loss”. But the subsequent recovery appears to have been sharp. “Performance recovered strongly in June as customers embraced a significantly expanded product offering, with AMPs increasing 30% in June and strong parlay penetration during the World Cup,” Jackson said.
Timing and Inflection
The timing is crucial. Jefferies’ market data, which runs through June, showed SNAI’s online sports betting and iGaming shares still declining, with “no material sign” yet of an inflection. However, the bank’s report also identified the platform migration as the potential catalyst for a turnaround. Flutter is now effectively arguing that this inflection has begun.
The historical comparison with Sisal strengthens that case. Jefferies noted that Sisal has outgrown Lottomatica’s online business in seven of the past eight quarters under Flutter ownership, and has beaten Lottomatica in iGaming growth in each of the past eight quarters.
SNAI’s Retail Advantage
SNAI also brings something that Sisal alone could not: substantially greater retail scale. Jefferies estimates that acquiring SNAI lifted Flutter’s online GGR share from around 20% to 27%, while increasing its retail sports betting share from 12% to 32%. In a market where retail presence provides a critical customer-acquisition advantage, that is a powerful combination.
Lottomatica Isn’t Standing Still
Any suggestion that Flutter has a clear path to the top must be tempered by Lottomatica’s own performance. CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi told analysts that the Italian online market grew 12% in Q2, accelerating to 19% in June, while Lottomatica continued to gain share across sports, iGaming, and overall online.
“In a mix of organic growth and M&A, we’ve gone from a marginal operator to the largest operator in the market,” Angelozzi said. Online revenue increased 24% in Q2 (25% on a normalised basis), while online adjusted EBITDA margins reached 58% in the first half of the year. Lottomatica therefore enters the fight from a position of considerable strength.
A Migration Success Story of Its Own
Lottomatica also has its own migration success to point to. Planetwin365’s sports share has moved above its pre-migration level, with CFO Laurence Van Lancker saying it had gained 0.2 percentage points, while iGaming has recovered around half of its lost ground.
That experience also informs Lottomatica’s attitude toward the escalating competition. The company repeatedly stressed that it will not pursue market share regardless of economics. “The point is not only acquiring market share, but acquiring quality market share at a sustainable cost,” Angelozzi told analysts. Van Lancker similarly emphasised “profitable growth” and promotional discipline.
The Battle Ahead
This dynamic arguably defines the coming battle. Lottomatica is attempting to defend its leadership while preserving exceptionally high online profitability. Flutter, meanwhile, is applying its global product and technology capabilities to two of Italy’s strongest brands, with SNAI offering the clearest incremental opportunity.
The early evidence from Flutter is encouraging, but one month of 30% player growth is not yet proof that SNAI’s long-term market-share decline has been reversed. If it has, however, the numbers look uncomfortable for Lottomatica. As Jefferies’ data suggests, Flutter does not need to invent a new Italian success story. It simply needs to repeat with SNAI what it has already achieved with Sisal.